On Saturday 19 September 2026, Edmen Shahbazyan takes on Brunno Ferreira in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Brunno Ferreira +3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brunno Ferreira +3.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Brunno Ferreira is a solid fighter who has a chance to keep this bout close against Edmen Shahbazyan. The fight is nearly a toss-up, and since Brunno is getting 3.5 points, it gives him a nice cushion. He's got the skills to stay competitive, especially if he can avoid getting caught early. The biggest worry is that Shahbazyan has shown better durability in the past, which could help him maintain control. However, Ferreira can strike back and make this a tight match. With the odds set like a coin flip, it feels reasonable to take a shot on Ferreira staying within that spread. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+120)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Edmen Shahbazyan is known for his strong striking and finishing ability, while Brunno Ferreira is also a powerful fighter who can end a match quickly. With both fighters having a knack for delivering knockouts, this matchup feels like it could end early. The odds suggest that it's almost even, which hints at how unpredictable this fight could be. Betting on under 1.5 rounds might be a smart choice because our numbers expect around 0.9 total rounds. However, there's a risk here; both fighters are capable of landing big shots, and it only takes one to finish the fight. If they come out swinging, we could see a quick end to the action. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brunno Ferreira to Win (+166)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Brunno Ferreira is known for his strong finishing ability, which makes him a dangerous opponent in the ring. He faces Edmen Shahbazyan, who is also skilled, and their styles should make for an exciting fight. Brunno has the advantage of youth on his side, which often helps fighters perform at their best. However, Shahbazyan has shown he can be tough to beat, and that makes this fight tricky. Betting on Brunno Ferreira to win might be a smart choice, but just remember that Shahbazyan could surprise everyone. It was priced at +166 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.60 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Edmen Shahbazyan: last five L-W-W-W-L, lost the last fight, 32% of career wins came by knockout, 105 days since the last fight
  • Brunno Ferreira: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Edmen Shahbazyan v Brunno Ferreira. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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