On Saturday 5 September 2026, Sofia Montenegro takes on Delphine Benouaich in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Delphine Benouaich to Win, priced at -135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Delphine Benouaich to Win (-135)
Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing
Delphine Benouaich is listed at -135 to win her fight against Sofia Montenegro, and our numbers show this matchup is nearly even, like a coin flip. Benouaich has a reach advantage, which can be crucial in striking exchanges. If she can use her longer reach effectively, it will help her control the fight and keep Montenegro at bay. Montenegro is a tough opponent, and she's known for her grappling skills, which could make this fight interesting. The main risk is that if Montenegro gets inside, she could put pressure on Benouaich. Still, if Benouaich plays to her strengths and keeps the distance, she has a great chance to secure the win. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+215)
Odds available at Tabtouch at time of publishing
This fight between Sofia Montenegro and Delphine Benouaich looks like it might end quickly. Both fighters have styles that suggest they will be aggressive, which could lead to a fast finish. Our numbers see a strong chance for fewer than 2.5 rounds, as their combined fighting styles lean towards early action. The most concrete risk here is that both fighters are skilled and could surprise us, making it a closer fight than expected. Still, with the way they usually fight, this could be over before we know it. Betting on under 2.5 rounds seems like a smart choice based on how they match up. It was priced at +215 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $31.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Sofia Montenegro: last five L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 344 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Sofia Montenegro v Delphine Benouaich. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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