On Sunday 20 September 2026, Alexandre Pantoja takes on Joshua Van in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Rounds, priced at -130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 3.5 Total Rounds (-130)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van are both fighters who like to finish their opponents quickly, which makes for an exciting matchup. Our numbers suggest they might not go the distance, as they are expected to combine for about two rounds. Pantoja has a strong finishing ability, which could make it tough for Van to survive long. The biggest risk here is that both fighters have shown they can take a hit, so it's possible they could last longer than expected. However, given the odds and how they both like to fight, betting on fewer than 3.5 rounds seems like a smart choice. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alexandre Pantoja to Win (+130)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Alexandre Pantoja is a tough fighter known for his ability to finish fights, while Joshua Van has a solid skill set but may struggle against Pantoja's aggressive style. Pantoja's experience could give him an advantage, especially since he knows how to handle pressure well. While both fighters have their strengths, the real risk here is how evenly matched they are. It's hard to predict who will come out on top, but I think Pantoja has what it takes to win this fight. The odds of +106 mean you're getting a good deal for his chances. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alexandre Pantoja +5.5 on the Line (-135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van are set to face off in a tight matchup where both fighters have their strengths. Pantoja is known for his grappling skills, while Van leans towards striking. This could lead to an exciting battle, as Pantoja might look to take it to the ground, but Van could also keep it standing to showcase his striking. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are pretty evenly matched, which means anything could happen, but Pantoja has the ability to keep it within that margin. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Alexandre Pantoja: last five L-W-W-W-W, lost the last fight, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 288 days since the last fight
  • Joshua Van: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 7-fight win streak, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 134 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Alexandre Pantoja v Joshua Van. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article