On Sunday 20 September 2026, Arman Tsarukyan takes on Mauricio Ruffy in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Mauricio Ruffy +13.5 on the Line, priced at +120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Mauricio Ruffy +13.5 on the Line (+120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tonight, Mauricio Ruffy needs to keep the fight close against Arman Tsarukyan to cover the spread of +13.5. Our numbers show this matchup is nearly a coin flip, meaning either fighter could take the win. Ruffy has shown solid durability in the cage, which could help him withstand Tsarukyan's striking and wresting attempts. The most concrete risk here is that both fighters are quite matched, making it tricky to predict how the fight will play out. Ruffy will need to avoid getting overwhelmed, but if he can stay competitive, he has a good shot at covering that spread. Given the close nature of their skills, this bet offers decent value. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mauricio Ruffy to Win (+285)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Mauricio Ruffy needs to be aggressive and use his striking skills to win this fight against Arman Tsarukyan. Ruffy is an underdog, but he has a real shot at pulling off an upset. His experience and style can match up well against Tsarukyan, who may struggle if Ruffy can find his rhythm early on. The risk here is that Tsarukyan is a tough opponent with solid skills, making this matchup quite close. Still, Ruffy's ability to deliver powerful strikes could turn the tide in his favor. At +285 odds, this bet offers great value for a fighter who can definitely compete. It was priced at +285 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $38.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Arman Tsarukyan: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 15% of career wins came by knockout, 302 days since the last fight
  • Mauricio Ruffy: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 31% of career wins came by knockout, 97 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Arman Tsarukyan v Mauricio Ruffy. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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