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UFC predictions for Saturday, November 14: the model has a long shot on Jared Gordon

3 UFC fights on Saturday. The model's strongest pick is Jared Gordon to win, a LONG-SHOT call.

By Tyler Brennan · Published Nov 13, 3:30 PM UTC · Updated Nov 13, 9:30 PM UTC

Written with our model's data and an AI writing assistant, checked against our rules. Meet our writers

Alatengheili vs Juan Diaz

Sat Nov 14
Our pick: Heili Alateng to win+340

LONG-SHOT — about a 2 in 10 chance by our numbers

Heili Alateng is being offered at +329 to win his fight against Juan Diaz, which presents a great opportunity for bettors looking for an underdog with a chance.

Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches

Sat Nov 14
Our pick: Samuel Sanches -3.5+105

LEAN — about a 5 in 10 chance by our numbers

Samuel Sanches is stepping into the octagon against Evan Elder in what looks like a very close fight.

Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa

Sat Nov 14
Top pick: Jared Gordon to win+315

LONG-SHOT — about a 3 in 10 chance by our numbers

Jared Gordon has a strong chance to win this fight against Melquizael Costa.

How we pick these games

Our model looks at each team's recent form, injuries, rest and the price on offer, and works out how likely each result is. When its number says a bet is more likely to land than the price suggests, the bet makes our list. For each game we show the one main-line bet it likes most. HIGH means it lands about 6 or more times in 10 by our numbers. LEAN means about 4 to 6 times in 10. LONG-SHOT means less than 4 in 10: a bigger payout and a smaller chance. No pick is a sure thing.

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