On Saturday 12 September 2026, Tommy McMillen takes on Marwan Rahiki in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Tommy McMillen -5.5 on the Line, priced at +115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tommy McMillen -5.5 on the Line (+115)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki are set for a tight matchup. He needs to use his striking skills to keep Rahiki at bay. Rahiki, on the other hand, will want to close the distance and look for opportunities to grapple. McMillen's recent rest days could be a factor, as he hasn't fought in quite a while, which makes it hard to predict how he'll perform. Still, if he can keep the pressure on, he has a good chance to cover the spread of -5.5. It may be a nail-biter, but I think McMillen can pull it off! It was priced at +115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tommy McMillen to Win (-143)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tommy McMillen is stepping into the octagon against Marwan Rahiki, and our numbers believe he has a good chance to win. McMillen's style is known for being aggressive, which can keep Rahiki on the back foot. With McMillen just a bit older than Rahiki, he might have the advantage in experience, knowing when to strike and when to defend. One important thing to consider is that Rahiki has a reputation for being tough and can withstand a lot of pressure, making this a closer matchup than it appears. Still, McMillen's fighting style and the way our numbers rate him make this a solid pick. It was priced at -143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Tommy McMillen: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 56 days since the last fight
  • Marwan Rahiki: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 33% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Tommy McMillen v Marwan Rahiki. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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