On Sunday 4 October 2026, Alden Coria takes on Imanol Rodriguez in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Imanol Rodriguez to Win, priced at -161 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Imanol Rodriguez to Win (-161)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Imanol Rodriguez has a good chance to win against Alden Coria. Rodriguez is known for his striking ability, which gives him the upper hand in this matchup. Coria will need to find a way to handle Rodriguez's punches while also trying to take the fight to the ground, but he might struggle with that. One concern is that both fighters are pretty close in terms of durability, meaning each could take a punch well. Still, Rodriguez's experience in striking should help him control the fight better. Overall, it looks like Rodriguez is positioned to come out on top here. It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Alden Coria: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 70 days since the last fight
  • Imanol Rodriguez: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 29% of career wins came by knockout, 210 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Alden Coria v Imanol Rodriguez. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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