On Sunday 4 October 2026, Alden Coria takes on Imanol Rodriguez in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Imanol Rodriguez -3.5 on the Line, priced at +105 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Imanol Rodriguez -3.5 on the Line (+105)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
In the UFC fight between Alden Coria and Imanol Rodriguez, both fighters bring different skills to the octagon. Rodriguez has a slight height advantage and is known for his striking ability, which could be key in keeping Coria at bay. Coria is durable, but he will need to push through Rodriguez's striking to close the gap. The most concrete risk here is how evenly matched they are, so a single mistake could swing the fight. Still, at even odds, betting on Rodriguez to win by more than 3.5 points seems like a smart choice based on what we've seen. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Imanol Rodriguez to Win (-135)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Imanol Rodriguez has a good chance to win against Alden Coria. Rodriguez is known for his striking ability, which gives him the upper hand in this matchup. Coria will need to find a way to handle Rodriguez's punches while also trying to take the fight to the ground, but he might struggle with that. One concern is that both fighters are pretty close in terms of durability, meaning each could take a punch well. Still, Rodriguez's experience in striking should help him control the fight better. Overall, it looks like Rodriguez is positioned to come out on top here. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Alden Coria: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 77 days since the last fight
- Imanol Rodriguez: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 29% of career wins came by knockout, 217 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Alden Coria v Imanol Rodriguez. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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