On Sunday 4 October 2026, Deiveson Figueiredo takes on Payton Talbott in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Payton Talbott -7.5 on the Line, priced at -161 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Payton Talbott -7.5 on the Line (-161)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Payton Talbott is looking strong in this fight against Deiveson Figueiredo. Talbott has a bit of an age advantage and seems to be in better form lately. With his fighting style, he needs to stay aggressive and use his reach to keep Figueiredo at bay. The numbers show Talbott is a solid favorite, and our model suggests he can win by at least 7.5 points. One risk to consider is that Figueiredo has shown he can be tough and durable in the past. However, if Talbott sticks to his game plan and uses his strengths, he has a good chance to cover the spread. This fight should be exciting, and we're hoping Talbott brings home the win! It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.20 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Deiveson Figueiredo to Win (+560)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
The odds of +510 for Deiveson Figueiredo show he's seen as a big underdog, but our numbers believe he has a real shot at winning this fight against Payton Talbott. Figueiredo brings strong striking skills to the octagon, which could be key in keeping Talbott at bay. He needs to land clean hits and avoid being taken down, as Talbott is known for his wrestling. One risk here is the difference in their ages, which can sometimes favor the younger fighter. Talbott might have the stamina and speed advantage. Still, Figueiredo's experience and skill set make him a worthy bet, especially at these odds. It could be a close matchup, but Figueiredo has the tools to pull off an upset. It was priced at +560 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $66 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Deiveson Figueiredo: last five L-L-W-L-L, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 127 days since the last fight
- Payton Talbott: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 302 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Deiveson Figueiredo v Payton Talbott. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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