Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott Prediction & Picks: Full Match Breakdown & Bets

On Sunday 4 October 2026, Deiveson Figueiredo takes on Payton Talbott in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Deiveson Figueiredo to Win, priced at +510 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Deiveson Figueiredo to Win (+510)

The odds of +510 for Deiveson Figueiredo show he's seen as a big underdog, but our numbers believe he has a real shot at winning this fight against Payton Talbott. Figueiredo brings strong striking skills to the octagon, which could be key in keeping Talbott at bay. He needs to land clean hits and avoid being taken down, as Talbott is known for his wrestling. One risk here is the difference in their ages, which can sometimes favor the younger fighter. Talbott might have the stamina and speed advantage. Still, Figueiredo's experience and skill set make him a worthy bet, especially at these odds. It could be a close matchup, but Figueiredo has the tools to pull off an upset. It was priced at +510 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $61 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Deiveson Figueiredo: last five L-L-W-L-L, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 119 days since the last fight
• Payton Talbott: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 294 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Deiveson Figueiredo v Payton Talbott. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.