Today's EPL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds: Moneyline & Totals Analysis

As Austin FC faces off against the Portland Timbers, the recent patterns suggest that a bet on Austin FC to cover the -0.75 handicap could be a savvy move. Although Austin has struggled lately at home with a record of just one win in five, their overall matchup history against Portland is relatively balanced, boasting two wins from their last five meetings. Portland's away form, while decent, has shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game on the road. Austin's attack, despite its inconsistencies, averages 1.4 goals at home, and their xG figures are slowly on the rise. With the Timbers leaking goals and Austin looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses, this matchup presents a ripe opportunity for the home side to reclaim some momentum. Expect a spirited performance that could see Austin notch a win, making that -0.75 line enticing for bettors.

1. FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen: 1. FC Koln +1.5 Corner Handicap (-135)

As 1. FC Koln prepares to host Bayer Leverkusen, recent form suggests the home side could be in for a fruitful afternoon. Koln has been quietly solid at home, and their attacking prowess seems to be on the rise. Meanwhile, Leverkusen's away form has been shaky, with a record of 1-1-3 in their last five on the road. What's particularly telling is Leverkusen's struggle to convert chances into goals, with an expected goal (xG) tally that doesn't match their scoring potential. They've averaged just 1.8 goals away while conceding a concerning 2.8, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Koln, on the other hand, is primed to exploit these weaknesses, especially with their recent ability to create and convert opportunities. Given these trends, betting on Koln to cover a 1.5 goal handicap feels like a compelling angle in this Bundesliga clash. Expect them to come out strong and capitalize on Leverkusen's struggles.

Austin FC vs Portland Timbers: Austin FC +1 Goal Handicap (-149)

As Austin FC prepares to face off against the Portland Timbers, there's a compelling case for backing the home side with a -1 handicap. Despite a rocky home record lately, Austin has shown resilience against Portland, going 2-1-2 in their last five meetings. While their recent form doesn't sparkle, with an average of just 1.2 goals scored in their last five outings, they do generate a solid number of shots, averaging nearly 13 per game. Portland, on the other hand, has been slightly more consistent on the road, scoring 1.6 goals away but conceding an average of 2.4. This indicates Austin could find the back of the net, especially given their historical success against the Timbers. With Austin's determination to turn around their form, a -1 handicap looks like a savvy play here, especially with home advantage in a match that could well be pivotal for their season.

Celta Vigo vs Levante: Over 9.5 Total Corners (+158)

As Celta Vigo prepares to host Levante, the corner count is primed for a spike. Celta has shown a knack for attacking play at home, averaging over 11 shots per match in their last five home games, with a respectable 4.6 of those hitting the target. Their propensity to push forward, coupled with Levante's tendency to concede corners away (averaging 1.8 corners against), suggests a busy afternoon on the flanks. Levante, while struggling for goals on the road, still manage to create around 10.8 shots per game, hinting at opportunities for corner flags to be raised. With both teams showing inconsistencies-Celta drawing twice in their last five-this match could see plenty of action, making the over 9.5 corners a compelling bet. Expect a game where both teams seek to capitalize on set pieces, leading to a lively corner count.

Napoli vs Lazio: Lazio +1.5 Corner Handicap (-125)

As Napoli prepares to host Lazio, the recent form paints a compelling picture favoring the visitors. Lazio is on a five-game winning streak away from home, averaging an impressive 2.8 goals while conceding just 0.6. Meanwhile, Napoli's recent home performance has been shaky, with a 2-1-2 record in their last five, and they've only managed to score an average of 1.8 goals at home. Lazio's attacking prowess is bolstered by their ability to create chances-averaging 13.2 shots per game away, compared with Napoli's 15.2. However, Lazio's defensive stability means they often restrict their opponents, which could be crucial here. With Napoli struggling against Lazio in recent matchups (1-2-2), and given Lazio's formidable away form, backing Lazio with a 1.5 handicap feels like a savvy move. Expect them to capitalize on Napoli's vulnerabilities and secure a convincing result.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.