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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for John Nelson is Over 1.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 15 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 15%, implied 4%, edge +17.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 21, 12:41PM UTC
Soccer

John Nelson

FC Cincinnati

+17.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 1.5 +2200 (23.00) · $100→$2,300
+17.2% Edge
San Jose Earthquakes @ LA Galaxy
Thu 20 Aug, 2:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
22 in 100
Predicted
0.6 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 21.5% · the book's price implies 4.3% · gap +17.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots21.5%14.9%4.3%6.73+17.2%

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AI Analysis

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John Nelson (LA Galaxy) Over 1.5 Shots (+2200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the LA Galaxy gear up to face the San Jose Earthquakes, keep an eye on John Nelson for an intriguing player prop bet: Over 1.5 total shots. While Nelson's recent averages hover around 0.8 shots per game, there's a compelling case for a breakout performance at home. The Galaxy are known for their attacking flair, and with the Earthquakes' defense showing vulnerabilities, Nelson could find ample opportunities to test the keeper. His last few outings at home have been steady, hitting the target about 50% of the time, which suggests he’s not just taking shots; he’s aiming to make them count. The matchup offers a ripe environment for him to push past his usual output, especially considering the Galaxy's need for a strong offensive display. With an implied probability of 4.3% on this over, it feels like the stars might just align for Nelson to exceed expectations tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 FC Dallas @ LA Galaxy Shots 0.5 Over +290 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 San Jose Earthquakes @ LA Galaxy Shots Pending

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About This Player

John Nelson (FC Cincinnati) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Nelson is Over 1.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.2% on this pick. Their next game is San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy on Thursday 20 August. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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