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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Long is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 42 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 42%, implied 26%, edge +15.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 21, 12:40PM UTC
Soccer

Aaron Long

New York Red Bulls

+15.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 0.5 +280 (3.80) · $100→$380
+15.4% Edge
Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Sat 1 Aug, 11:30PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
42 in 100
Predicted
0.3 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 41.8% · the book's price implies 26.3% · gap +15.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots41.8%26.3%2.40+15.4%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Long (Los Angeles FC) Over 0.5 Shots (+280)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When it comes to Aaron Long, he's not just a defender; he's a key cog in the Los Angeles FC machine, especially on the road against the Vancouver Whitecaps. While his recent averages might suggest modest output—just 0.2 shots in his last five games—there's a compelling narrative unfolding. Long is currently on an impressive eight-game hit streak, with four of those on the road. The Whitecaps might give him just the opportunity he needs to break through. With their defense often stretched, Long could find himself in positions to unleash a shot or two, especially during set pieces. Considering the model gives a solid edge to this bet, the value on over 0.5 shots at 3.8 is tantalizing. Remember, sometimes it’s not just the numbers but the context; this could be Long’s moment to shine in a critical match-up.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots Pending
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Long is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.4% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Saturday 1 August. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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