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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Long is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On the Shots market the model assigns a model win probability of 42%, versus the book's implied 26%, for a model edge of +15.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 1, 10:06AM UTC
Soccer

Aaron Long

New York Red Bulls

+15.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 0.5 +280 (3.80)
+15.4% Edge
Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Sat 1 Aug, 11:30PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
41.8%
Implied Probability
26.3%
Model Edge
+15.4%
Predicted Value
0.3 Shots

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots41.8%26.3%2.40+15.4%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Long (Los Angeles FC) Over 0.5 Shots (+280)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When it comes to Aaron Long, he's not just a defender; he's a key cog in the Los Angeles FC machine, especially on the road against the Vancouver Whitecaps. While his recent averages might suggest modest output—just 0.2 shots in his last five games—there's a compelling narrative unfolding. Long is currently on an impressive eight-game hit streak, with four of those on the road. The Whitecaps might give him just the opportunity he needs to break through. With their defense often stretched, Long could find himself in positions to unleash a shot or two, especially during set pieces. Considering the model gives a solid edge to this bet, the value on over 0.5 shots at 3.8 is tantalizing. Remember, sometimes it’s not just the numbers but the context; this could be Long’s moment to shine in a critical match-up.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Long is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.4% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Saturday 1 August. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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