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Soccer

Aaron Long

New York Red Bulls

Value call

Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls) has one live pick today: over 1.5 shots that pays $1,000 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
14 in 100
Predicted
0.3 shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 14.0% · the book's price implies 10.0% · gap +4.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
LA Galaxy @ Los Angeles FC
Sun 25 Oct, 9:00 PM ET
Aaron Long
over 1.5 shots
Shots Over 1.5 +900 (10.00) · $100→$1,000
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 14 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$100.00 Odds+900
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Long is Over 1.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 14 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 14%, the price says 10%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 5:20PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer total goals overs: +$2,522 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots14.0%—10.0%7.15+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Long (Los Angeles FC) Over 1.5 Shots (+900)

Odds correct at time of publishing

In the electric atmosphere of the LA derby, we’re zooming in on Aaron Long as a prime candidate to go over 1.5 total shots. Now, while his recent form might suggest a modest output with an average of only 0.4 shots per game overall, the stakes of a rivalry match like this often spark unexpected performances. Playing at home, Long has shown a slight uptick in aggression, even if his average there is just 0.2 shots. With the Galaxy’s defense likely focusing on LAFC’s star attackers, Long could find himself in more advanced positions, especially on set pieces. His current streak of having at least one shot makes this an intriguing play, especially when considering the fierce nature of the derby. There’s a good chance he’ll step up and take a couple of cracks at goal, so betting on the over feels like a smart, calculated risk in this high-stakes clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Long is Over 1.5 on Shots. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC on Sunday 25 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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