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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dean Henderson is Yes on To Receive a Card.
On the To Receive a Card market the model assigns a model win probability of 10%, versus the book's implied 8%, for a model edge of +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Jul 28, 6:44AM UTC
Soccer

Dean Henderson

Nottingham Forest

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
To Receive a Card Yes +1100 (12.00)
+1.9% Edge
Argentina @ England
Sat 18 Jul, 9:00PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
10.2%
Implied Probability
8.3%
Model Edge
+1.9%
Predicted Value
0.1 To Receive a Card

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
To Receive a Card10.2%8.3%9.80+1.9%

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AI Analysis

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Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace) Yes To Be Carded (+1100)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As England prepares to face Argentina in this high-stakes World Cup clash, all eyes will be on Dean Henderson, who might find himself in the thick of the action. Historically, his average of 0.4 yellow cards in away games suggests he’s not shy about getting his hands dirty when needed—especially against a side like Argentina, where the physical intensity is likely to ramp up. While his overall yellow card average sits at 0.2, the pressure of this marquee matchup could skew that number upwards. The stakes are monumental, and with Argentina’s attacking prowess, Henderson may be forced to make some tough decisions, risking a card in the process. With England's defense under siege, the likelihood of him committing a foul or two also rises. At a current hit rate of 50% in his last six away matches, targeting him to receive a card could pay off handsomely.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dean Henderson (Nottingham Forest) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dean Henderson is Yes on To Receive a Card. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Argentina vs England on Saturday 18 July. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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