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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Edmonton Oilers

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 4:48PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Rogers Place, Edmonton
Indoor
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:00AM
3
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Tampa Bay Lightning (Moneyline)
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers (NHL), model win probability 72.3%, fair odds 1.38, book price -135, model edge +14.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:00AM at Rogers Place.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Edmonton OilersPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Edmonton Oilers

  • Adam Henrique COut
Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Pontus Holmberg and Adam Henrique.
FactorThis fixture
Availability2 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers Shots on Goal 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineEdmonton Oilers +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Includes analysis on key players like Connor McDavid. Discover NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.</p>

Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Edmonton Oilers +1.5 (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Sunday morning's clash between the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning promises to be a thrilling one. Despite the Oilers' recent struggles at home, with a 1-4 record in their last five, we've seen some glimmers of hope. Even though they've been averaging just 0.8 goals per game, they've also kept their opponents to a respectable 1 goal average. On the flip side, Tampa Bay, with their impressive 4-1 away record, certainly won't make it an easy match for the Oilers. They've been hitting the back of the net on average 2 times a game, and have shown a strong defense, allowing just 2.4 goals per game overall. However, the Oilers' resilience can't be overlooked. With a 2-3 record against Tampa Bay, they hold the capacity to upset the Lightning. Edmonton's coming into this game with a point to prove, and the added 1.5 goals in the Puck

Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Let's talk a second about Connor McDavid. This guy's a lightning rod on the ice, especially when he plays at home. Over his last five home games, he's been averaging an imposing 4 shots on goal. Sure, his overall average might be a touch lower at 3.2, but we're betting on McDavid in his own barn, where he's clearly more comfortable letting the rubber fly. And let's not ignore the fact that McDavid's hit rate at home over his last 10 games is at a scorching 90%. Tampa Bay's defense may be formidable, but McDavid's got a knack for finding those pockets of space and capitalizing on them. So, if you ask me, McDavid to go over 2.5 shots on goal against the Lightning? That's a shot I'm willing to take.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at Rogers Place. The model has generated 3 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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