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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Calgary Flames

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 1:05AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Indoor
Mon 23 Mar 2026, 12:00AM
3
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Calgary Flames 1.5 (Puck Line)
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames (NHL), model win probability 79.7%, fair odds 1.25, book price -167, model edge +17.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 23 Mar 2026, 12:00AM at Scotiabank Saddledome.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Puck Line
Calgary Flames
1.5
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Calgary FlamesPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Calgary FlamesPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Calgary Flames

  • Kevin Bahl DOut
  • Connor Zary COut
  • Yan Kuznetsov DOut
Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 4 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability4 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Blake Coleman Calgary Flames Shots on Goal 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineCalgary Flames +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Includes analysis on key players like Blake Coleman. Discover NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.</p>

Blake Coleman (Calgary Flames) Under 2.5 Shots On Goal (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

If you've been keeping tabs on Blake Coleman's shot performance, you'll know he's been a little shy of the mark lately. The Calgary Flames' winger has been averaging just 2.2 shots per home game over his last five outings, dipping even lower when you look at his overall average of 2 shots per game. He's currently on a no-hit streak at home, and his hit rate for his last 15 home games is a respectable 12 out of 15, but it's not the kind of streak that screams 'sharpshooter'. Overall, he's been hitting under the mark in 13 of his last 16 games. As the Flames prepare to square off against the Tampa Bay Lightning, it's worth considering a bet on Coleman to deliver Under 2.5 shots on goal. After all, past performance often hints at future results.

Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Tampa Bay Lightning win (-189)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As we gear up for this electrifying face-off on the NHL ice, it's hard to ignore the Tampa Bay Lightning's recent hot streak. Look at their last five games, they've been dominating with a 4-1 record both overall and on the road. They've been lighting up the scoreboards, too, averaging 2.2 goals per game overall and an even better 2.4 when they're the away team. On the other side of the rink, the Calgary Flames' form has been decidedly chillier. Their record on home ice is a disappointing 0-5, and they're just not finding the net - managing only 0.4 goals per game at home and overall. Plus, they're letting in 2.6 goals on average, which doesn't bode well against Tampa's potent attack. With these factors in mind, it seems like a smart call to back the Tampa Bay Lightning on the Moneyline for this clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 23 March 2026 at Scotiabank Saddledome. The model has generated 3 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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