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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Calgary Flames

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 7:04AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Indoor
Mon 23 Mar 2026, 12:00AM
3
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Calgary Flames 1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 4 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $160 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 79.7%, fair odds 1.25, book price -167, model edge +17.2%. Tip-off Mon 23 Mar 2026, 12:00AM at Scotiabank Saddledome.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Calgary Flames
+1.5
-167
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Calgary FlamesPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Calgary FlamesPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Calgary Flames

  • Kevin Bahl DOut
  • Connor Zary COut
  • Yan Kuznetsov DOut
  • Henry Mews DOut
Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Blake Coleman Calgary Flames Shots on Goal 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineCalgary Flames +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames — 3 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Calgary Flames
PlayerStatus
Kevin Bahl DOUT
Connor Zary COUT
Yan Kuznetsov DOUT
Henry Mews DOUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Includes analysis on key players like Blake Coleman. Discover NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.

Blake Coleman (Calgary Flames) Under 2.5 Shots On Goal (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

If you've been keeping tabs on Blake Coleman's shot performance, you'll know he's been a little shy of the mark lately. The Calgary Flames' winger has been averaging just 2.2 shots per home game over his last five outings, dipping even lower when you look at his overall average of 2 shots per game. He's currently on a no-hit streak at home, and his hit rate for his last 15 home games is a respectable 12 out of 15, but it's not the kind of streak that screams 'sharpshooter'. Overall, he's been hitting under the mark in 13 of his last 16 games. As the Flames prepare to square off against the Tampa Bay Lightning, it's worth considering a bet on Coleman to deliver Under 2.5 shots on goal. After all, past performance often hints at future results.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Flames, or as Flames vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Monday 23 March 2026 at Scotiabank Saddledome. The model has generated 3 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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