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NFL

Zach Ertz

PHI

Value call

Zach Ertz has one live pick today: to score a touchdown that pays $1,500 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
5 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Anytime TD
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 5.0% · before adjusting for past results 11.3% · the book's price implies 6.7% · gap -1.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Zach Ertz
to score a touchdown
Anytime TD Yes +1400 (15.00) · $100→$1,500
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 5 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$150.00 Odds+1400
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Ertz is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 5 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 5%, the price says 7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:05PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD11.3%5.0%6.7%15.00+4.6%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers: Zach Ertz Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1400)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Zach Ertz is a solid target for the Eagles, especially with Carolina's defense that has struggled against tight ends. He has a knack for finding the end zone, and this week he's at home, which gives him an extra boost. Plus, the Eagles' offense is looking to bounce back, and Ertz often steps up when they need a big play. The biggest risk here is that the two teams are pretty evenly matched, so scoring could be a bit tough. Still, with odds at +1400, it's worth taking a chance on Ertz to get that touchdown. He's got the skills and the opportunity, so let's see if he can shine this week!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
24%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3

Zach Ertz's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 24%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards12 lines trackedNo line posted
21.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–59.5tips tracked12

Zach Ertz's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 21.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions8 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over39%tips tracked8

Zach Ertz's NFL receptions prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Zach Ertz average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards 23.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards 22.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards 21.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Ertz (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Ertz is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carolina Panthers vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 18 October at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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