JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) Under 1.5 Receptions (-128)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The data-driven rationale for betting on JuJu Smith-Schuster for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market lies in his recent performance and hit rates. Over the last 5 games, Smith-Schuster has not met this threshold, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 0/5. His hit rates at home are slightly better (1/5), but still demonstrate a propensity to stay under the 1.5 receptions mark.
Moreover, when we look at his record against Washington, his hit rate falls to 0/1, which remains the same at home. This trend continues over his last 10 and 20 games, with Smith-Schuster falling under the 1.5 receptions mark more often than not.
Given his current hit streaks are all at 0, betting the Under 1.5 on Smith-Schuster's receptions is statistically supported. This is reaffirmed by the model edge of 0.187