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The latest Bet Better model pick for Isiah Pacheco is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 50%, versus the book's implied 33%, for a model edge of +16.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NFL

Isiah Pacheco

KC

+16.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +200 (3.00)
+16.9% Edge
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
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Model Probability
50.2%
Implied Probability
33.3%
Model Edge
+16.9%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer50.2%33.3%1.99+16.9%

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AI Analysis

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Isiah Pacheco (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown anytime in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Commanders is not very promising based on his recent performance and trends. Pacheco has not scored a touchdown in his last 10 games overall, and his hit rate at home is also zero in his last 10 appearances. He has only scored 1 touchdown in his last 20 games overall, and at home, his hit rate drops to 25% (5 out of 20 games). Furthermore, his overall touchdown rate is 25.9% (14 out of 54 games) and 22.5% at home (7 out of 31 games). Given his current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home, the statistical evidence suggests that betting on Pacheco to score a touchdown in this game would be a high risk.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Isiah Pacheco's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted
7.5typical line · receiving yds
line range7.5–24.5model over57%tips tracked5

Isiah Pacheco's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 7.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions1 line trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
tips tracked1

Isiah Pacheco's NFL receptions prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Isiah Pacheco (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isiah Pacheco is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.9% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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