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The latest Bet Better model pick for Arch Manning is Over 251.5 on Passing Yards.
On Passing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 6:58AM UTC
NCAAF

Arch Manning

Texas

Value call

Arch Manning (Texas) has one live pick today: Passing Yards Over 251.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Passing Yards Over 251.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers
Sat 26 Sep, 4:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf player pass yds overs: 74 of 109 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
257.9 Passing Yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.8% · before adjusting for past results 58.4% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -7.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards58.4%45.8%53.2%2.00+8.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Tennessee Volunteers vs Texas Longhorns: Arch Manning Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

On Saturday 26 September 2026, Tennessee Volunteers host Texas Longhorns in college football. The bet we are looking at is Arch Manning Over 251.5 Passing Yards. This wins if Arch Manning finishes with more than 251.5 passing yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. That price was showing at FanDuel. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Arch Manning's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards 251.5
-114 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 4 of the last 10 games

Arch Manning's passing yards line is 251.5, best over price -114 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 4 of his last 10 games.

Rushing Yards 25.5
-114 best over price · 1 book

Arch Manning's rushing yards line is 25.5, best over price -114 across 1 book.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Arch Manning (Texas) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arch Manning is Over 251.5 on Passing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Texas Longhorns vs Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday 26 September. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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