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The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Verlander is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 91%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Justin Verlander

SFG

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1000 (1.10)
+2.4% Edge
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Wed 23 Jul, 4:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.3%
Implied Probability
90.9%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed93.3%—90.9%1.07+2.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Justin Verlander (SFG) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Justin Verlander for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed (Alternate) market is supported by his recent performance data. His last five games show a consistent trend of allowing more than 2.5 hits, both overall and when playing away. On average, Verlander has allowed 5.2 hits overall and 5.4 hits when playing away. His performance against the Braves specifically also supports this bet, with an average of 7 hits allowed in their last five matchups. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) and outs averages, which are lower when playing away and against the Braves, suggest he's more likely to allow hits in these scenarios. Despite his current hit streak being zero, the consistent trend in his performance indicates a high probability of allowing over 2.5 hits.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 3.550%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%

Justin Verlander MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
L2090%

Justin Verlander MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Justin Verlander (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Verlander is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves on Wednesday 23 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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