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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hayden Birdsong is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
MLB

Hayden Birdsong

SFG

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -667 (1.15)
+4.0% Edge
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Mon 21 Jul, 11:15PM
OUT
Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 74d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.9%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts90.9%—87.0%1.10+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Hayden Birdsong (SFG) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Hayden Birdsong for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is a good choice due to his recent performance data. His L5 (last five games) overall and away SO (strikeouts) averages are 2.2 and 2.8 respectively, both of which are close to the line of 2.5. However, his performance significantly improves against the Braves, with an average of 5 strikeouts per game, almost double the bet line. His innings pitched (IP) and outs average also increase when playing against this opponent and away from home, indicating his ability to play longer and maintain his performance. Despite a current away hit streak of zero, his overall hit streak is positive, suggesting a potential for improvement in this game. Therefore, based on Birdsong's strong performance against this specific opponent and his close-to-line overall averages, this bet is a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2075%
O 2.570%
O 3.550%
O 4.520%
O 5.530%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Hayden Birdsong MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.530%
O 3.530%

Hayden Birdsong MLB hits allowedseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2095%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.510%

Hayden Birdsong MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg earned runs · L5

Hayden Birdsong MLB earned runs: averaging 0.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
6.6avg outs · L5

Hayden Birdsong MLB outs: averaging 6.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Hayden Birdsong (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hayden Birdsong is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves on Monday 21 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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