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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 22, 7:01PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Houston Astros -2 Spread +246

The model graded 22 markets for Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $346 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM at Rogers Centre.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.7%
The price says28.9%
Best price+246
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Houston Astros -2 Lean44% chance +246
Spread Long-shot35% chance
Spread Lean53% chance
Spread High71% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread Long-shot31% chance
Spread Long-shot23% chance
Moneyline Lean49% chance
Spread High82% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Houston Astros -1.5 · $100 returned $290

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 867 of 1,730 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 22
Under 7.5
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $216
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Jeremy Pena SSDay-to-day
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Andres Gimenez SSDay-to-day
  • Josh Smith 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP
Availability updated Aug 22, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Shane Bieber CLE Pitcher - Strikeouts
Peter Lambert COL Pitcher - Strikeouts

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L51-4

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L51-4

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L51-4

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent results

Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3NYYAway
W5–1TBAway
L6–7TBAway
W10–5TBAway
L3–4NYYHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–0ATHHome
L3–18LAAHome
W3–2LAAHome
L1–3LAAHome
L2–3SEAHome

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 3.8 runs per game (4-1) while Houston Astros are at 3.2 (2-3); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Houston Astros.

3.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
3.2
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
Runs / game3.83.2
Hits / game5.44.6
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game1.02.2
Batter K / game2.82.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.41.6
Pitching K / game2.06.0
Walks allowed / game2.60.8
L5 record4-12-3

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Toronto Blue Jays won 3, Houston Astros won 3.

DateToronto Blue JaysHouston AstrosWinner
Aug 554Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 527Houston Astros
Aug 431Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 2413Houston Astros
Jun 2379Houston Astros
Jun 2242Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Andres Gimenez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2BOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Jake Bloss SPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Jeremy Pena SSDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

Deep dive into Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros stats and odds.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Houston Astros +1.5 (-167)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros +2.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Jays, or as Jays vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 23 June 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Even at 3–3 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros7–2Houston Astros
5 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros4–5Toronto Blue Jays
4 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros1–3Toronto Blue Jays
24 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays1–3Houston Astros
23 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays7–9Houston Astros
22 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays4–2Toronto Blue Jays
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