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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 2, 5:02PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Houston Astros -1.5 (Spread)
For Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB), model win probability 39.3%, fair odds 2.54, book price +190, model edge +4.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM at Rogers Centre.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ronel Blanco SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Aug 1, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Shane Bieber CLE Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Peter Lambert COL Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L55-0

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L55-0

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 4-1, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L55-0

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.2 runs/gm.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 3.8 runs per game (4-1) while Houston Astros are at 3.2 (2-3); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Houston Astros.

3.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
3.2
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
Runs / game3.83.2
Hits / game5.44.6
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game1.02.2
Batter K / game2.82.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.41.6
Pitching K / game2.06.0
Walks allowed / game2.60.8
L5 record4-12-3

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros stats and odds.</p>

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Houston Astros +1.5 (-167)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Houston Astros Win (+119)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Houston Astros +1.5 (-189)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Under 8.5 Total Runs (+100)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros : Under 8.5 Total Runs (+100)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
23 Jun 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -4.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 23 June 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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