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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 13, 11:56AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
14.3%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
Model lean: Houston Astros -1.5 (Spread)
For Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB), model win probability 39.3%, fair odds 2.54, book price +190, model edge +4.8%, this matchup's picks have hit 14.3% across 7 settled results, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 23 Jun 2026, 8:07PM at Rogers Centre.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Brice Matthews CFDay-to-day
  • Ronel Blanco SPOut
  • Lance McCullers Jr. SPOut
  • Bennett Sousa RPOut
  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Kai-Wei Teng RPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut

Probable pitcher

Cristian Javier SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Jul 12, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Shane Bieber CLE Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Peter Lambert COL Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 1 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
7
Total Picks
14.3%
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult
23 Jun 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros 1.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -4.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 23 June 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Historically across 7 settled picks between these two teams, the model has recorded a hit rate of 14.3%. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.