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Model picks & player props
Seattle Mariners
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 22, 2:35PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 Spread +265

The model graded 22 markets for Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $365 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win39.8%
The price says27.4%
Best price+265
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 Long-shot40% chance +265
Spread Long-shot36% chance —
Spread Lean44% chance —
Spread Lean48% chance —
Spread Long-shot28% chance —
Spread Long-shot24% chance —
Spread Long-shot21% chance —
Moneyline High65% chance —
Spread Long-shot18% chance —
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Highup to 73% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Tampa Bay Rays -3 · $100 returned $462

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 867 of 1,730 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 22
Under 7.5
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $216
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Tampa Bay Rays
-4.5
+560
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Bryan Woo SPDay-to-day
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Emerson Hancock SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP
Availability updated Aug 22, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jonathan Aranda TBR Batter - Total Bases
Josh Naylor CLE Batter - Total Bases

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L51-4Free board13-12

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L51-4Free board12-11

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L51-4

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5 games; Seattle Mariners have won 2 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5BALAway
L1–5TORHome
W7–6TORHome
L5–10TORHome
W7–6BALHome
Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–7MILAway
W7–5MILAway
L0–22MILAway
W3–2HOUAway
L7–10HOUAway

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 5, Seattle Mariners won 1.

DateTampa Bay RaysSeattle MarinersWinner
Aug 941Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 932Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 821Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 1228Seattle Mariners
Jul 1161Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 1072Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Deep dive into Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Josh Naylor. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners stats and odds.

Josh Naylor (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-196)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Seattle Mariners, all eyes will be on Josh Naylor and his quest for total bases. However, the trends suggest that he might struggle to clear the 1.5 mark. Naylor has faced lefties with inconsistent results, and today’s matchup against the Mariners’ southpaw, who boasts a solid strikeout rate, could stifle his bat. The Rays’ lineup has been adept at neutralizing opposing hitters, particularly at home, where they’ve limited extra-base hits effectively. Plus, Naylor’s recent form shows a dip in power against left-handers, making that 1.5 line feel a bit ambitious. Given the way the Rays have been pitching and Naylor’s current struggles, betting the under here seems like a prudent choice. With the numbers supporting a lower output, it’s hard to envision him racking up those bases against this formidable Tampa pitching staff.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -3 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Moneyline Tampa Bay Rays ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mariners vs Rays, or as Rays vs Mariners. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Tampa Bay Rays 5–1 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners2–3Tampa Bay Rays
9 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners1–4Tampa Bay Rays
8 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners1–2Tampa Bay Rays
12 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays2–8Seattle Mariners
11 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays6–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 Jul 2026Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays7–2Tampa Bay Rays
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