As the Mariners host the Blue Jays on July 4th, fireworks are likely to light up the scoreboard. Both teams have been swinging hot bats lately, with Seattle averaging over five runs per game in their last week of play. The Mariners' lineup has been particularly potent against right-handed pitching, and they’ll face Toronto’s starter, who has struggled with command, allowing more than four earned runs in half his recent outings.
On the other side, the Blue Jays are no slouches either. With a lineup boasting heavy hitters capable of turning a game on its head—think of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette—expect them to capitalize on any mistakes. Each of their last five games has seen totals well above three runs. Given the current form of both offenses and the pitching matchup, betting on the total to soar over three runs feels like a no-brainer.
Cal Raleigh (SEA) Under 0.5 Walks (-345)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As we look to the Mariners' matchup against the Blue Jays, Cal Raleigh stands out as a player to watch, but perhaps not for the reasons many might expect. Raleigh has been swinging a hot bat recently, but his discipline at the plate tells a different story. With just a handful of walks in the last month, he’s exhibited a tendency to be aggressive, leading to fewer free passes.
The Blue Jays' pitching staff, particularly their starters, have been effective at minimizing walks, ranking in the top tier of the league for fewest walks allowed. Given that Raleigh has averaged just 0.18 walks per game, the under on 0.5 seems enticing. With the Mariners looking to capitalize on any mistakes, and Raleigh's current approach, it’s a prime setup for him to stay aggressive and swing for the fences rather than take a free trip to first. Keep an eye on this one; it feels like a safe bet.
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays : Seattle Mariners +2 (-125)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Mariners take the field against the Blue Jays this Independence Day, there’s a palpable buzz surrounding Seattle, especially with their recent surge. Over the last month, the Mariners have been lights out at home, boasting a solid record and a lineup that’s found its rhythm. Look at their last series; they’ve been consistently racking up runs, showing a knack for capitalizing on pitching mistakes.
On the other side, the Blue Jays, despite their talent, have struggled against left-handed pitching, and with the Mariners likely sending a lefty to the mound, that trend could continue. Seattle’s already shown they can handle the run line with authority, and their ability to score early could put them in a commanding position. With a confident home crowd behind them, betting on the Mariners to cover a two-run spread feels like a smart move on a day dedicated to celebrating victories.
Randy Arozarena (SEA) Under 0.5 Walks (-476)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays, all eyes will be on Randy Arozarena, especially with the walk line set at 0.5. Arozarena has been swinging the bat with impressive aggression lately, reflecting a trend where his disciplined plate approach has him more focused on putting the ball in play than drawing walks.
Against a potent Mariners bullpen that thrives on striking out hitters, Arozarena's chances of drawing a free pass seem slim. The Mariners have been exceptional at limiting walks this season, allowing just over two per game, which adds to the likelihood that Arozarena might not see enough pitches out of the zone. Given this context, the under 0.5 walks feels like a compelling play. When you consider how Arozarena's recent performances align with this formidable Mariners pitching staff, it’s hard to envision him walking in this matchup.
Kazuma Okamoto (NA) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-250)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays on the Fourth of July, all eyes will be on Kazuma Okamoto. While he's certainly a talented player, recent trends suggest that he may struggle to find his rhythm against a tough Mariners pitching staff. Over the last month, Seattle's starters have been firing on all cylinders, boasting an impressive 3.20 ERA at home.
Furthermore, Okamoto has faced a barrage of left-handed pitchers lately, and with the Mariners likely sending out a southpaw, his numbers against lefties have dipped significantly. The underwhelming .225 batting average against left-handers this season screams caution. With the Mariners' commitment to tight defensive plays, generating hits and runs will be no easy feat for Okamoto. All things considered, taking the under on his hits, runs, and RBIs feels like a savvy play in a matchup that leans heavily in Seattle's favor.