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Model picks & player props
Seattle Mariners
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 9:33PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
81.0%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline)
The model graded 20 markets for Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $219 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 81.0% across 21 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 53.4%, fair odds 1.87, book price +119, model edge +7.7%. Tip-off Thu 25 Jun 2026, 4:35PM at PNC Park.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Pittsburgh Pirates · $100 returned $219

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryan Woo SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; Seattle Mariners have won 1 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway
Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3TBHome
L1–4TBHome
L1–2TBHome
W4–2DETHome
L0–11DETHome

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.8 runs per game (3-2) while Seattle Mariners are at 1.6 (3-2); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Seattle Mariners.

4.8
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
1.6
Seattle Mariners runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners
Runs / game4.81.6
Hits / game7.03.0
Home runs / game0.40.4
Walks drawn / game1.00.8
Batter K / game2.83.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.21.8
Pitching K / game4.03.8
Walks allowed / game1.20.8
L5 record3-23-2

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, Seattle Mariners won 1.

DatePittsburgh PiratesSeattle MarinersWinner
Jun 2551Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 24111Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 2323Seattle Mariners

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Matt Brash RPOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Logan Evans SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Pittsburgh Pirates playing Seattle Mariners. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners stats and odds.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+119)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
21
Total Picks
81.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jun 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mariners vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Mariners. The most recent game between them was Thursday 25 June 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 81.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Pittsburgh Pirates 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–1Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates11–1Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Seattle Mariners
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