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Model picks & player props
Seattle Mariners
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:47PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 4:35PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates -2 (Spread)
For Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 28.6%, fair odds 3.50, book price +342, model edge +5.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 25 Jun 2026, 4:35PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-2
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Julio Rodriguez CFDay-to-day
  • J.P. Crawford SSDay-to-day
  • Rob Refsnyder DHOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Luis Castillo SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Chris Devenski RPOut
  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Bubba Chandler SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 5:43AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.0implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.8 runs per game (3-2) while Seattle Mariners are at 1.6 (3-2); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Seattle Mariners.

4.8
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
1.6
Seattle Mariners runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners
Runs / game4.81.6
Hits / game7.03.0
Home runs / game0.40.4
Walks drawn / game1.00.8
Batter K / game2.83.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.21.8
Pitching K / game4.03.8
Walks allowed / game1.20.8
L5 record3-23-2

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Pittsburgh Pirates playing Seattle Mariners. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners stats and odds.</p>

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+119)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-105)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-106)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Under 7 Total Runs (+160)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Under 12.5 Total Runs (-476)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners : Under 7.5 Total Runs (+128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 25 June 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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