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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Houston Astros

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:47AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Thu 4 Sep 2025, 11:40PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees Moneyline -137

The model graded 2 markets for New York Yankees vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $173 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 4 Sep 2025, 11:40PM at Minute Maid Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.5%
The price says57.8%
Best price-137

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ethan Pecko SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board15-12

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board16-13

Houston Astros spread form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for New York Yankees at Houston Astros — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6NYMAway
W3–1NYMAway
W5–1NYYAway
L3–9NYYAway
W9–7NYYAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome
W9–3HOUHome

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Houston Astros won 3, New York Yankees won 3.

DateHouston AstrosNew York YankeesWinner
Aug 2751Houston Astros
Aug 2639New York Yankees
Aug 2597Houston Astros
Apr 2674Houston Astros
Apr 25412New York Yankees
Apr 2538New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Houston Astros vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees : New York Yankees Win (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The New York Yankees are a solid choice for the Moneyline market despite being the away team. The Houston Astros' recent record against the Yankees is negative at 2-3, indicating that the Yankees have a proven capability to best the Astros. Furthermore, the Astros' average runs scored (3.4) is only marginally higher than the Yankees' (3.2), which suggests that the Yankees' offense can match the Astros'. Moreover, the Yankees have been more successful in limiting their opponents' scoring, with an average of 3.4 runs allowed compared to the Astros' 1.2. This defensive strength could be a significant factor in a potential Yankees victory. Therefore, based on the recent head-to-head record and comparative run statistics, it's reasonable to place a bet on the Yankees.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Astros, or as Astros vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Thursday 4 September 2025 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 28 meetings on record
New York Yankees 18–10 across the last 28 meetings · these games average 10.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
27 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees1–5Houston Astros
26 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees9–3New York Yankees
25 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees7–9Houston Astros
26 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros7–4Houston Astros
25 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–12New York Yankees
24 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–12New York Yankees
4 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–8New York Yankees
3 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros8–7Houston Astros
2 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros1–7New York Yankees
10 Aug 2025Houston Astros @ New York Yankees1–7Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 28 meetings on file.

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