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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:11PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Wed 23 Jul 2025, 7:40PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline +384

The model graded 2 markets for Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $484 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 23 Jul 2025, 7:40PM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win36.3%
The price says20.7%
Best price+384

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Arizona DiamondbacksMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ethan Pecko SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Ketel Marte 2BOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2Free board11-10

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.6Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–6SFAway
W7–1SFAway
L1–6SFAway
W5–4CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6NYMAway
W3–1NYMAway
W5–1NYYAway
L3–9NYYAway
W9–7NYYAway

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.6 runs per game (2-3) while Houston Astros are at 3.4 (4-1); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Houston Astros.

4.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
3.4
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros
Runs / game4.63.4
Hits / game7.47.8
Home runs / game1.20.4
Walks drawn / game3.81.8
Batter K / game9.26.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.61.2
Pitching K / game9.06.0
Walks allowed / game2.21.6
L5 record2-34-1

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Tommy Troy LFOUT
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Ketel Marte 2BOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Blake Walston SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 23 July 2025 at Chase Field. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 9 meetings on record
Houston Astros 8–1 across the last 9 meetings · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks3–4Houston Astros
22 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–3Houston Astros
21 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks3–6Houston Astros
8 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros6–12Arizona Diamondbacks
7 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros11–5Houston Astros
6 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros8–0Houston Astros
1 Oct 2023Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–8Houston Astros
30 Sep 2023Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks0–1Houston Astros
29 Sep 2023Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–2Houston Astros
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