On Saturday 10 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -161 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Manchester City, there’s a palpable buzz around Anfield. The Reds have been formidable at home, averaging 1.4 goals in their last five matches while conceding just 0.8—a solid defensive display. They’ve faced City recently with mixed results, but at Anfield, the atmosphere could tilt the scales. On the other side, City has been impressive away, scoring an average of 2 goals per game, but their defensive frailties have been evident. Given Liverpool’s ability to create chances—13.6 shots per game—and their recent record against City, the home side has the edge. With City’s away record recently showing a slight vulnerability, backing Liverpool with a -0.5 handicap seems wise. If they can harness their Anfield advantage and capitalize on City’s occasional lapses, a Liverpool victory feels not just probable, but likely.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-556)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the stage is set for a thrilling encounter that screams goals. Liverpool has been a tad inconsistent at home, averaging just 1.4 goals in their last five matches, yet they’re rarely shy in front of their own fans. Meanwhile, City is riding high with an impressive away record, netting an average of 2.6 goals per game recently. Their attacking prowess, combined with Liverpool's defensive vulnerabilities—allowing about 1 goal per game at Anfield—paints a picture of a high-scoring affair. Both teams have a knack for creating chances, with Liverpool averaging 15.2 shots per match and City boasting 17.4 away. Given the attacking talent on display and both sides' recent form, betting on over 1.5 goals seems not just safe, but almost inevitable in this titanic clash.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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