JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Saturday 12 September 2026, JJ Aldrich takes on Regina Tarin in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Regina Tarin -3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Regina Tarin -3.5 on the Line (-110)

Regina Tarin is offered at -3.5, and our numbers think that's a solid choice. She has a bit of an advantage with her reach, which could help keep JJ Aldrich at bay. Tarin is also in good form lately, and she's got the skills to keep the fight in her favor as long as she sticks to her game plan. The main risk here is that Aldrich has shown good durability, so she might hang in there longer than expected. Still, if Tarin can control the fight and use her reach effectively, she should be able to cover that spread. It's not a sure thing, but we like how this matchup shapes up for her. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Alexa Grasso: last five W-L-L-W-W, won the last fight, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
• Manon Fiorot: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 20% of career wins came by knockout, 329 days since the last fight
• Brandon Moreno: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
• Joseph Morales: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 308 days since the last fight
• Curtis Blaydes: last five L-W-L-W-L, lost the last fight, 27% of career wins came by knockout, 154 days since the last fight
• Waldo Cortes Acosta: last five L-W-W-W-L, lost the last fight, 30% of career wins came by knockout, 126 days since the last fight
• Dan Ige: last five L-L-W-L-L, dropped the last 2, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 203 days since the last fight
• David Martinez: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
• Drakkar Klose: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 392 days since the last fight
• Tommy Gantt: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 119 days since the last fight
• Jean Silva: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 15% of career wins came by knockout, 231 days since the last fight
• Jose Miguel Delgado: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 56 days since the last fight
• Muslim Salikhov: last five L-W-W-W-L, lost the last fight, 18% of career wins came by knockout, 308 days since the last fight
• Ignacio Bahamondes: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
• Rafa Garcia: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 140 days since the last fight
• Rongzhu: last five W-W-L-L-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 385 days since the last fight
• Tim Elliott: last five L-W-W-L-W, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight
• Édgar Cháirez: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 98 days since the last fight
• Tommy McMillen: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 56 days since the last fight
• Marwan Rahiki: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 33% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight
• Yousri Belgaroui: last five W-W-W-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
• Djorden Santos: last five L-W-L-W, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 126 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads JJ Aldrich v Regina Tarin. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.