On Wednesday 16 September 2026, Ednilson Santos takes on Akbar Abdullaev in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Rounds, priced at +265 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Over 1.5 Total Rounds (+265)

Odds available at Tabtouch at time of publishing

Ednilson Santos is known for his striking, while Akbar Abdullaev has a strong grappling style. Santos will need to keep the fight standing to land his punches, and if Abdullaev can take him down, he could control the fight. This matchup has the potential to go back and forth, which is why betting on over 1.5 rounds makes sense. Our numbers suggest there's a good chance this fight will last longer than 1.5 rounds, but it could also end quickly if one fighter finds a clean shot or a submission. Both fighters have shown they can finish fights, so the risk lies in their ability to capitalize on each other's weaknesses. Still, the excitement of this matchup makes it worth a shot! It was priced at +265 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $36.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Igor Cavalcanti: last five L, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 741 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Ednilson Santos v Akbar Abdullaev. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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