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Model picks & player props
Soccer
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Outdoor
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:00 PM UK time
Sunderland
1-1-4 · 0-1-2 awayWDLLL
VS
Bournemouth
0-3-3 · 0-2-1 at homeDDDLL

Sunderland vs Bournemouth Prediction & Picks · Sun 18 Oct

Our model graded 16 markets for Sunderland vs Bournemouth and backs Bournemouth 0 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $145.

16
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Bournemouth
to win, money back on a draw
Bournemouth 0 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$14.50Best price-222
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.3%
The price says62.8%

The model graded 16 markets for Sunderland vs Bournemouth (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $145 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 18 Oct 2026, 2:00 PM UK time at Vitality Stadium.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Bournemouth 0 High70% chance -222
Spread Members only High62% chance Members
Draw No Bet Members only High70% chance Members
Head to Head (3-Way) Members only Lean53% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean53% chance Members
Total Goals Members only High80% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Bournemouth are the model's favourite to beat Sunderland, with a 53% chance to win. Kick-off Sun 18 Oct, 2:00 PM UK time at Vitality Stadium. Best bet: Bournemouth 0 at -222.
How they've been scoring this season
SunderlandBournemouth
Won-drawn-lost1-1-40-3-3
Goals scored per game1.01.2
Goals allowed per game2.02.2
On the road / at home0-1-2 away0-2-1 at home
Last 5 gamesWDLLLDDDLL
Their games average 3.2 total goals this season.
From the 6 Sunderland and 6 Bournemouth games on our books this season.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: Bournemouth about 5 in 10 to win.

All Soccer odds this week →

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Bournemouth
0
+ 15 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BournemouthSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
SunderlandSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Sunderland on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Sunderland
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Onexbet
on Sunderland
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Sunderland

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

AFC Bournemouth

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sunderland vs Bournemouth: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Same game parlay

Written 13 Oct

Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction & Same Game Parlay picks

On Tuesday 13 October 2026, Bournemouth play Sunderland in the EPL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Bournemouth Draw No Bet, priced at -196 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth Draw No Bet (-196)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, recent form hints at a potentially favorable outcome for the Cherries. Although they've struggled, managing just one win in their last five home matches, they’ve shown flashes of attacking intent, averaging 1.4 goals at home. Meanwhile, Sunderland arrives with a mixed away record, scoring 1.8 goals but conceding 2.0, putting pressure on their defense. Bournemouth's xG numbers suggest they’re due for a breakthrough, as they’ve been racking up shots—averaging 14.4 per game—and with Sunderland’s weak defensive record, their chances to capitalize are ripe. Taking Bournemouth on a Draw No Bet gives us a cushion; if they can convert their chances, they’re more than capable of claiming all three points.

That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Sunderland. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk

Betting angles

4 markets live
MoneylineSunderland @ Bournemouth+100
53%Bournemouth win %
2-1-1past meetings (last 4)
Home form7-7-6Away form2-4-14
past meetings, home wins2 / 4 home

In their last 4 meetings, Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1; the model reads Bournemouth's win chance at 53% for this fixture.

Draw No BetSunderland @ Bournemouth-196
70%Bournemouth win %
2-1-1past meetings (last 4)
Home GF/g1.6Away GF/g0.7

Bournemouth to win with the stake returned on a draw; the model prices this at 70%.

Both Teams to ScoreSunderland @ BournemouthNo line posted
2 / 4past meetings, both scored
Bournemout55%Sunderland25%
past meetings, both scored2 / 4 both scored

Both teams scored in 55% of Bournemouth's and 25% of Sunderland's recent matches.

Total GoalsSunderland @ BournemouthOver +1.5 -385
80%model over %
1 / 4past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.560%Away ov2.540%past meetings avg2.0
past meetings, over 2.51 / 4 over

The last 4 meetings averaged 2.0 goals, over 2.5 in 1 of them; the model prices Over at 80% here.

SpreadSunderland @ BournemouthBournemouth 0 -222
70%model cover %
2-1-1past meetings (last 4)
Home margin+0.5Away margin-1.3

Bournemouth on the 0 goal handicap; the model prices this cover at 70%.

Sunderland @ Bournemouth — what the model found

Our model graded 16 betting markets for Sunderland at Bournemouth — 16 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

16
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 16 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 15 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Sunderland @ Bournemouth — where the money went

Since betting opened on Sunderland at Bournemouth, the market has moved toward Sunderland across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Sunderland▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Bournemouth▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Bournemouth -0.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Sunderland 0.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Draw▲ Money came for this
Spread — Sunderland 0▲ Money came for this
Spread — Bournemouth 0▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Sunderland 0.25▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Sunderland @ Bournemouth — model preview

Bournemouth v Sunderland, 13 October 2026. Top of the list: Bournemouth Draw No Bet. Our model likes one bet in this game. Here is why, in plain English.

On Tuesday 13 October 2026, Bournemouth play Sunderland in the EPL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Bournemouth Draw No Bet, priced at -196 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth Draw No Bet (-196)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, recent form hints at a potentially favorable outcome for the Cherries. Although they've struggled, managing just one win in their last five home matches, they’ve shown flashes of attacking intent, averaging 1.4 goals at home. Meanwhile, Sunderland arrives with a mixed away record, scoring 1.8 goals but conceding 2.0, putting pressure on their defense. Bournemouth's xG numbers suggest they’re due for a breakthrough, as they’ve been racking up shots—averaging 14.4 per game—and with Sunderland’s weak defensive record, their chances to capitalize are ripe. Furthermore, historical matchups show Bournemouth has a slight edge, holding a 0-1-1 record over their last two encounters. Taking Bournemouth on a Draw No Bet gives us a cushion; if they can convert their chances, they’re more than capable of claiming all three points.

That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Sunderland. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sunderland vs Bournemouth in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Sunday 18 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium. The model has generated 16 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Sunderland vs Bournemouth head-to-head record

Final scores · 6 meetings on record
Even at 2–2 across the last 6 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 2.5 goals (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sat 28 Feb 2026, Sunderland at Bournemouth: the game ended level at 1-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
28 Feb 2026Sunderland @ Bournemouth1–1Draw
29 Nov 2025Bournemouth @ Sunderland3–2Sunderland
29 Apr 2017Bournemouth @ Sunderland0–1Bournemouth
5 Nov 2016Sunderland @ Bournemouth1–2Sunderland
23 Jan 2016Bournemouth @ Sunderland1–1Draw
19 Sep 2015Sunderland @ Bournemouth2–0Bournemouth
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