Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 5 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-135)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing Conor McKenna to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Brisbane Lions and the Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba, the numbers speak volumes. McKenna has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1 goal over his last 5 home games. With a solid average of 2.2 shots at goal and 4 score involvements in those games, McKenna is a player who gets involved in the attacking plays. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he's averaged a goal in their last 5 encounters, McKenna's goal-scoring prowess is further highlighted. Despite a slight dip in accuracy recently, shooting at 30% at home, McKenna's overall goal accuracy of 40% boosts confidence in his ability to split the middle this time. Betting on McKenna to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given his track record and form.
Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing Mitch Owens to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash between St Kilda and Carlton at Marvel Stadium, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Despite a quieter patch recently, Owens has shown a knack for goal scoring, with a recent average of 0.8 goals per game. His goal accuracy, sitting at 60.0% overall, indicates he knows how to split the middle when the pressure is on. In his last five home games, Owens has been actively involved in the attacking plays, with 4.6 score involvements on average. With an average of 1.6 shots on goal in these games, he's not afraid to pull the trigger. Facing Carlton, against whom he has previously notched an average of 1 goal, the stage is set for Owens to shine in front of the home crowd. Betting on Owens to hit the scoreboard is a smart move given his history and current form.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 24.5 Disposals (-196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Archie Roberts is set to make waves as Essendon takes on Geelong away at GMHBA Stadium. In his last five away games, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24 disposals. Facing off against the Cats, he's shown he can lift his game, averaging a hefty 33 disposals in their past encounters. With a knack for contested possessions, clean disposals, and racking up meters gained, Archie's poised to shine. His recent form paints a picture of consistency and impact, making the Over 24.5 disposals line look like a golden opportunity. The numbers don't lie, and with his current hot streak, Archie Roberts is primed to snag this bet. So, buckle up as he looks to split the middle and deliver a disposal masterclass against the Cats.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to AFL player props, Joel Jeffrey is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Jeffrey has been making waves with his impressive stats, averaging 16 disposals in his last five away games. His knack for finding space and creating opportunities is evident in his 80.8% disposal efficiency and 341.8 metres gained on average. Facing the Giants, he has historically upped his game, averaging 15.5 disposals against them. With a model predicting him to hit 19.8 disposals, there's a solid 19.1% edge in favor of him surpassing the 15.5 line set by the bookies. Smart bettors should back Jeffrey to shine and snag those crucial possessions to help push the Suns to victory.
Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Hugo Garcia and his upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium. The stats don't lie - Garcia's been a midfield maestro, averaging a tidy 25.8 disposals in his last five home games for the Saints. With a recent hit rate of 3 out of 4 hitting the over, Garcia's form is red hot. His ability to find space, move the ball efficiently, and contribute defensively with intercepts makes him a prime candidate to snag a big disposal count against the Blues. Facing Carlton, whom he's already been averaging 12.3 disposals against, Garcia is poised to dictate play and rack up the possessions. At odds of 1.61, backing Garcia to go over 21.5 disposals is a smart play with a 62.1% implied probability. Trust in Garcia to split the middle and deliver for your Sunday wager.
Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, Daniel Rioli stands out like a shining star under the Canberra lights. Rioli's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals in his last five away clashes. Facing the GWS Giants, he's even more dangerous, boasting an average of 19.3 disposals against them in his last five encounters. Rioli's ability to find space, utilize his kicks effectively (averaging 8.4 per game), and maintain a high disposal efficiency of 86.2% showcases his reliability in possession. With a model predicting him to hit 23.5 disposals and a history of exceeding 20.5 comfortably, Rioli is primed to continue his dominance and snag that Over bet for us.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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