Here are our AFL picks for Friday 21 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Under 24.5 Disposals, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Under 24.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Darcy Byrne-Jones' recent performances, the data paints a clear picture for our bet on him to go under 24.5 disposals against Essendon. In his last five away games, he averages 23.8 disposals, just under the line. His contested possessions sit at 6.8, while his disposalefficiency stands at a solid 76.7%. Facing Essendon, he historically averages 15 disposals when playing away and 12.6 overall against them. With a hit streak of 3 in away games and 6 out of 7 overall, Byrne-Jones seems poised to stay below the line. The numbers suggest he may fall short in this matchup, making the under on his disposals a compelling bet to consider.
Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Finn O'Sullivan, the Kangaroos' midfield maestro, heads to the SCG with an impressive track record but faces a tough ask against the Swans. Despite recent form showing a solid 15.8 disposals per game away, his clash with the Swans paints a different picture. In his last five games against Sydney, Finn averaged 20 disposals overall but only 20 away from home. His disposals efficiency of 75.2% is commendable, but the Swans pose a different challenge. With a hit streak of 7 games away but a hit rate of 0 in his overall last 20, the odds lean towards the under. Finn's recent struggles against the Swans suggest he may fall short of the 22.5 disposals line, making the under an enticing bet.
Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Dyson Sharp's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in Essendon's midfield. However, his home ground averages of 20.6 disposals over the last five games, while impressive, fall short of the 22.5 line set by sportsbet. Against Port Adelaide, who have limited him to just 5 disposals on average in their recent encounters, Sharp might face a tough challenge. His disposal efficiency of 73.6% and ability to gain meters (224.4 on average) are commendable, but Port's tight defense could disrupt his flow. With Sharp's turnovers averaging 3.6 per game, there's a risk of him being forced into errors under pressure. Considering these factors, backing Sharp to stay below 22.5 disposals seems like a prudent play to make on this footy clash at Marvel Stadium.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Smith, the Geelong Cats' midfield maestro, is set to face off against the tough Richmond Tigers at GMHBA Stadium. The data paints a clear picture for a play on the Under 33.5 disposals for Smith. Over his last 5 home games, he's averaged 32.6 disposals, just shy of the line. Despite his recent form, Smith's contested possessions sit at 11.4, a key indicator that he might struggle against Richmond's pressure. With a solid but not exceptional disposal efficiency of 72.9%, Bailey could face challenges converting opportunities. Furthermore, his turnover rate of 6 per game suggests he's prone to coughing up possession. Against Richmond, who have held him to 28 disposals on average in their last 5 meetings, Bailey Smith might find it tough to hit the line. So, expect him to fall short of the 33.5 disposal mark this time around.
Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over in disposals, Angus Clarke of the Essendon Bombers stands out like a beacon in the night sky. Clarke's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 13.8 disposals per game over his last five outings. With a solid 79.8% disposal efficiency and an average of 9.4 kicks per game in his last five home fixtures, Clarke has shown he can navigate traffic and find the ball with precision. Facing Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Clarke's ability to cover ground (averaging 268.8 meters gained) and contribute in contested situations (3.2 contested possessions on average) could see him easily surpass the 11.5 disposals mark. With a current hit rate streak of 3 out of 4 at home, Clarke is primed to step up and deliver another solid performance for the Bombers.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Conor McKenna is set to bring the heat against Collingwood at the MCG. In his last five away games, he's been a consistent threat, averaging 1.2 goals per game with a sharp 44.7% goal accuracy. With an impressive 5.2 score involvements and 3.2 inside 50s per match, McKenna is a key playmaker for Brisbane. Facing a Collingwood side where he's averaged no less than a goal per game in their recent encounters, McKenna is poised to exploit their defense. Despite a lower overall goal average, his recent form and history against Collingwood make him a strong bet to snag at least one goal in this matchup. Get ready to see McKenna split the middle and help you secure that Over 0.5 goals bet.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article