Odds correct at time of publishing.
In his last five away games, he averaged 21.4 disposals, falling slightly above the line. However, his overall average of 24.2 disposals is tempered by his current away contested possessions of 10.6 and turnovers at 4. With a solid hit rate in away games but a recent dip in overall performance, the data suggests Heeney might struggle to reach 23.5 disposals against Melbourne at the MCG. This bet capitalizes on his statistical trends and recent performances.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Under 26.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Patrick Cripps is showing a consistent trend of performing below 26.5 disposals, with his average over the last 5 away games at 21.8. His recent stats indicate a pattern of lower disposals, including an average of 9.6 kicks and 12.2 handballs in away games. Cripps' disposals efficiency and uncontested possessions also suggest he may not reach the 26.5 line. With a strong hit rate of 5/5 in away games, betting on Cripps to go under 26.5 disposals against Greater Western Sydney Giants seems a favorable choice.
Caleb Serong (Walyalup) Under 28.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Caleb Serong's recent performance, especially in away games, indicates a potential under on his disposals. With a model prediction of 25.5 disposals and a standard deviation of 5, Serong's average of 28.4 disposals in away games falls close to the line of 28.5. Considering his recent form, including a 64.9% disposalefficiency and an average of 4.6 turnovers in away games, there's a strong case for him to potentially fall short of the line. This analysis suggests that Serong may struggle to exceed the set line in the upcoming match against Fremantle.
Tom De Koning (Carlton) Under 20.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Tom De Koning is likely to go under 20.5 disposals based on his recent performance indicators. His L5 contested possessions (12.4) and turnovers (4.2) support the under trend. While his overall disposals average sits at 16.6, his away games' disposals are slightly inflated. De Koning's recent form, combined with the model's insights, suggests he may struggle to reach the 20.5 disposals mark against Carlton Blues, making the under a favorable bet.
Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-189)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Jack Gunston has been in exceptional form, averaging 3 goals over his last 5 games, with a strong home hit streak of 4. Against Brisbane Lions, he has a favorable history of averaging 2 goals. His recent stats show an average of 5.4 shots at goal and 3 marks inside 50 per game, suggesting he consistently gets scoring opportunities. With an impressive goal accuracy of 57.1% at home, Gunston is likely to convert these chances. Considering his current hit streak, high shot volume, and strong goal-scoring history, the model's prediction of 2.3 goals for Gunston supports a solid rationale for betting on him to score over 1.5 goals in this matchup.
Logan Evans (Yartapuulti) Under 16.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Logan Evans is likely to go under 16.5 disposals as he averages 12.8 in his last five away games. With a model prediction of 13.7 and a standard deviation of 5, indicating consistency, Evans' recent form of 4 contested possessions and 9.8 kicks per game support this bet. Despite a hit streak of 4 away games, his overall disposals average of 14.8 suggests he may fall short. Fremantle's solid defense and playing away further strengthen the under bet.
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