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Model picks & player props
MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep 2026, 4:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals
VS
San Diego Padres

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres and backs San Diego Padres hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $166.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$16.58Best price-152
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.8%
The price says58.2%

The model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $166 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 9 Sep 2026, 4:11 PM ET at Petco Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings San Diego Padres Lean60% chance -152
Total Runs Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Spread Members only High73% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean51% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot11% chance Members
Batter - Home Runs × 6 props Leanup to 47% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 98% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 7 props Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - RBIs × 7 props Highup to 99% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 6 props Highup to 79% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Highup to 62% Members
Batter - Singles × 2 props Highup to 82% Members
Batter - Hits × 6 props Leanup to 51% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres last met on Wed 9 Sep 2026: San Diego Padres won 5-4. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
San Diego Padres
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,203+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

San Diego Padres

  • Adrian Morejon RPDay-to-day
  • Gavin Sheets 1BDay-to-day
  • Rodolfo Duran COut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut
Availability updated Oct 7, 1:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Home Runs
Casey Mize Pitcher - Walks
Harry Ford Batter - Walks
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Total Bases
Harry Ford Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
5.1runs we expect
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L53-2

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 2 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3MILHome
W4–3MILHome
L2–3MILAway
L3–4MILAway
W4–1CHCHome
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4NYMHome
L1–7NYMHome
W7–6NYMHome
W4–2DETAway
W3–1DETAway

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: San Diego Padres won 4, Washington Nationals won 2.

DateSan Diego PadresWashington NationalsWinner
Sep 992San Diego Padres
Sep 954San Diego Padres
Sep 732San Diego Padres
May 3124Washington Nationals
May 3049Washington Nationals
May 2975San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Adrian Morejon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Sheets 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rodolfo Duran COUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Ken Waldichuk RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres prediction for September 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 10, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Samad Taylor Under 0.5 RBIs (-400), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Padres, or as Padres vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 17–7 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 9.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 9 Sep 2026, Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: the Padres won 5-4.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
8 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
7 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
31 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals4–2Washington Nationals
30 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals9–4Washington Nationals
29 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals5–7San Diego Padres
20 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals1–8San Diego Padres
19 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals4–2Washington Nationals
18 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals2–7San Diego Padres
25 Jun 2025Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres1–0San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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