Dallas Goedert (PHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the statistical data, the betting on Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown at any time during the game against the Chicago Bears appears to be a risky proposition. His recent performance shows a lack of scoring, with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. Moreover, his last 10 games have also not seen him score a touchdown, and his hit rate over the last 20 games is only 10% (2 out of 20). His overall touchdown scoring rate is just about 14.8% (8 out of 54). Thus, the data suggests that Goedert's scoring potential is not particularly high. While the model edge is positive, it's relatively small, suggesting that the expected return isn't particularly high relative to the risk. Therefore, the statistical evidence does not strongly support a bet on Goedert to score a touchdown in this match.

DeVonta Smith (PHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided historical data, betting on DeVonta Smith to score a touchdown any time during the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears game appears to be a risky proposition. Smith's recent performance does not inspire confidence. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games falls dramatically short, failing to score a touchdown in the majority of his recent matches. His hit rate at home, where this game is being played, is slightly better but still not promising, with only one touchdown in the last 10 home games. Furthermore, Smith's record against the Bears is unimpressive, with no touchdowns in the last match against them. His current hit streaks in all categories are at zero, indicating a lack of momentum. In conclusion, the stats suggest that a bet on DeVonta Smith to score a touchdown in this game is unfavorable.

Saquon Barkley (PHI) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Saquon Barkley to go under 19.5 receiving yards hinges primarily on his recent performance and hit rate trends. Barkley's overall and home hit rates show a pattern of underperformance, with a 0/10 rate in his last 10 overall games and a 1/10 rate for his last 10 home games. His current hit streaks also stand at zero for both overall and home games. Despite Barkley's perfect record against the Chicago Bears (1/1), the sample size is too small to outweigh his overall weak performance. Furthermore, his hit rates in the last 5 games are 0/5 for both overall and home games, indicating a downward trend in his performance. The model edge of 0.130918687631133 further supports the idea that Barkley is likely to fall under 19.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game.

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