On Wednesday 30 September 2026, New York Liberty play Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is New York Liberty +3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
New York Liberty +3.5 on the Line (-110)
Odds available at MyBookie at time of publishing
The New York Liberty have been holding their ground lately, winning six of their last ten games. They've faced tough competition, playing against teams with a solid record, which shows they can hang with the best. On the other hand, the Minnesota Lynx have also won six of their last ten, but they've struggled a bit more recently, winning only two of their last six. Betting on New York Liberty to cover the spread of +3.5 seems smart given their strong scoring form and home advantage. The risk here is that the teams are closely matched, and a tight game could go either way. Still, our numbers suggest the Liberty have a good chance to keep it close or win outright. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 177.5 Total Points (-175)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The New York Liberty have been playing well lately, winning 6 of their last 10 games. They've faced tough competition, which makes their recent form even more impressive. On the other hand, the Minnesota Lynx have also won 6 of their last 10, but they're scoring fewer points recently, averaging just over 90 points a game this season. The combined total points in this matchup is expected to be around 160, so betting on under 177.5 seems smart. The biggest risk is that both teams can surprise with their scoring, but the Liberty's tough schedule gives them a solid chance to keep the total lower. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.70 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Pauline Astier Under 6.5 Rebounds and Assists (+110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Pauline Astier has been playing pretty well lately, but she's also been up against tough competition. The New York Liberty have faced clubs with a strong overall record, making every game challenging. This means Astier might find it harder to rack up rebounds and assists against a solid Minnesota Lynx team that has also been winning games. With both teams having a similar recent performance, the odds look pretty even. However, Astier's numbers suggest she might not hit more than 6.5 combined rebounds and assists today. The biggest risk here is that she could surprise everyone and have a big game, but based on what we've seen, this bet seems like a smart choice. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
New York Liberty face off against Minnesota Lynx, and this matchup could be tricky for Jonquel Jones. Even though she's been reliable overall, she tends to score a bit less during nighttime games. Plus, the Lynx's recent performances show they can hold their opponents to lower scores, making it tougher for Jones to hit her points mark. Betting on Jonquel Jones to score under 13.5 points seems like a solid choice here. Considering she's averaging 14.7 points at night but has struggled a bit in this setting, it feels like a close call. The Lynx are also known for their strong defense, which adds to the risk of this bet not winning. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for Sabrina Ionescu to score under 15.5 points look promising. She's been averaging about 14.8 points in night games, and with the tough competition from the Minnesota Lynx, it might be hard for her to hit that number. The Lynx are scoring well, but they also play strong defense. Ionescu has faced teams with a tough schedule recently, and that could make it challenging for her to shine. Plus, the Lynx have won 6 of their last 10 games, showing they can keep up the pressure. The biggest risk here is that Ionescu has been known to score higher when the game intensity rises, so she could surprise us. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads New York Liberty v Minnesota Lynx. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article