Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo Prediction & Picks (Alyssa Thomas Key Factor): Full Match Breakdown & Bets

The odds for Alyssa Thomas to score under 14.5 points look solid. She has been pretty inconsistent lately, with points ranging from 10 to 25 in her last ten games. The Phoenix Mercury tend to struggle with defense, letting opponents grab a lot of rebounds and shoot a bunch of three-pointers, but Thomas might have a tough time finding her rhythm today. Both teams aren't in great form, with Toronto winning only once in their last ten games and often trailing by nearly ten points in their recent matchups. The real risk here is that Thomas might have a breakout game, but based on her recent performance, it feels like this line is set pretty well. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kiki Rice Under 15.5 Points (-110)

Kiki Rice has been all over the place with her scoring lately, hitting as few as zero points and as many as seven in her last ten games. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled this season, winning only two of their last ten, and they let opponents grab a lot of rebounds and take plenty of three-point shots. This could mean fewer chances for Kiki to score big against a tough Toronto Tempo defense, which has been taking the ball away from opponents quite a bit. With Kiki's scoring being so inconsistent and the Mercury facing a tough matchup, betting on her to score under 15.5 points seems like a reasonable choice. The biggest risk is that she could have a surprise standout game, but with her scoring pattern, there's a good chance she stays under that number. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Laura Juskaite Under 12.5 Points (-114)

Laura Juskaite has been struggling lately, and that's a big reason to bet she'll score under 12.5 points in this game. The Phoenix Mercury have allowed a lot of rebounds and three-pointers, but they also tend to limit individual scoring. With the Mercury giving up 35.6 rebounds a game, it's clear they have their hands full, but that might actually help keep Laura from getting those easy scoring chances. Both teams are having a rough time, with Toronto Tempo winning just once in their last ten games. Laura's recent performance hasn't been great either. The most concrete risk here is how close the two teams have been in terms of scoring, but our numbers suggest there's a good chance she stays under that mark. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Toronto Tempo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.