On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Indiana Fever play Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA. Our model likes 4 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 193.5 Total Points, priced at -286 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 193.5 Total Points (-286)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The odds for the total points are set at under 193.5, and our numbers believe that's a solid pick. Indiana Fever has scored an impressive 96 points a game lately, but they've also been tight on defense, while Las Vegas Aces have been scoring 91.3 points per game but can struggle against strong defenses. With both teams playing tough lately, a combined score around 167.5 makes sense. The biggest risk is that both teams are in good scoring form, but we still like the under here. It was priced at -286 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.50 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kelsey Mitchell Under 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Kelsey Mitchell has been on fire this season, averaging around 28 points and assists per game at home. However, the Las Vegas Aces are one of the toughest teams in the league, winning six straight games and showing strong defense. This matchup is going to be challenging for Mitchell, especially since the odds are close to even, meaning it could go either way. The risk here is that Mitchell could struggle against the Aces' strong defense, which might limit her scoring and rebounding. With the Aces allowing fewer points lately, betting on Mitchell to score under 26.5 points and rebounds looks like a reasonable choice. Just remember, this game could be tighter than expected. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
A'ja Wilson Under 42.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
A'ja Wilson is a fantastic player, but we think she'll score less than 42.5 when combining her points, rebounds, and assists. She has been great in night games, averaging 29.5 when you add those stats up, but the Fever have been playing solid defense lately. They've won 4 of their last 6 games, and that could make it tougher for Wilson to hit those big numbers. The Las Vegas Aces have also been on a roll, winning 6 games in a row, but Wilson's daylight stats show she averages a bit less in those games. It's a close matchup, and the Fever's recent form means they could really challenge her. Just keep in mind that any game can surprise you! It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 Points (-109)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chelsea Gray has been on fire lately, but her performance can dip when playing at night. In her last ten night games, she averages just over ten points. With Indiana Fever scoring quite a bit more lately, this could be a game where she focuses more on assisting than scoring, especially against the strong Las Vegas Aces defense, who have won six straight. Taking the under on Chelsea Gray's points at 12.5 seems like a smart move. While she can definitely light it up, there's a real chance that the Fever's pace and the Aces' defense keep her from hitting that number. It's worth noting her scoring can fluctuate, and the pressure of this matchup might tighten things up for her. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Indiana Fever v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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