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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game Picks
50
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Los Angeles Dodgers (Moneyline)
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB), model win probability 73.0%, fair odds 1.37, book price +830, model edge +62.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 8:10PM at Dodger Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Los Angeles DodgersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut

Probable pitcher

Mitch Bratt SP

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Emmet Sheehan SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Alex Call WSN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andy Pages Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andy Pages Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shohei Ohtani Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineLos Angeles DodgersNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers spread form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

Los Angeles Dodgers total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsLos Angeles Dodgers team totalNo line posted
3.8implied team total
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 2.0 runs per game (4-1) while Arizona Diamondbacks are at 2.0 (2-3); Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Arizona Diamondbacks.

2.0
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
2.0
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
Last 5 gamesLos Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Runs / game2.02.0
Hits / game2.82.6
Home runs / game0.80.4
Walks drawn / game0.01.6
Batter K / game2.02.6
Earned runs allowed / game1.41.0
Pitching K / game1.02.0
Walks allowed / game1.40.4
L5 record4-12-3

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Geraldo Perdomo. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.</p>

Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Dodgers and Diamondbacks face off, all eyes will be on Geraldo Perdomo. While he’s shown flashes of potential, the matchup against a dominant Dodgers pitching staff is daunting. Over the last month, LA's starters have posted a dazzling 2.75 ERA at home, stifling opposing hitters with a potent combination of strikeouts and limiting hard contact. Perdomo's recent form adds another layer to this narrative. He’s struggled to find consistent success against left-handed pitching, and with the Dodgers likely deploying a southpaw, it could be a long afternoon for him. Furthermore, LA’s defense has been stellar, transforming tough plays into outs. Given these trends and Perdomo's tendency to be kept in check, betting on him to stay under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs feels like a smart play in this tightly contested matchup.

Gabriel Moreno (ARI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Dodgers prepare to face the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Gabriel Moreno’s performance at the plate. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends indicate he may struggle against the Dodgers' formidable pitching staff, especially given the way they’ve been attacking right-handed hitters. Moreno’s batting average has dipped against teams boasting a strong bullpen, and with L.A. rolling out a top-notch starter who excels in limiting hard contact, it’s hard to envision him racking up the total bases today. Arizona’s lineup has faced the Dodgers' ace multiple times, and history shows they’ve had a hard time making consistent contact. With the projection leaning heavily towards him finishing below 1.5 total bases, it might be wise to lean into the under here. Moreno could be in for a challenging afternoon against the relentless Dodgers, making this a compelling spot for the under bet.

Max Kepler (MIN) Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Dodgers gear up to face the Diamondbacks, Max Kepler's performance becomes a focal point in the betting landscape. While the Dodgers boast a powerful lineup, Kepler's recent stats suggest a different narrative. He’s been struggling to find his groove at the plate, hitting just .220 against left-handed pitching over the last month, and with Arizona sending a crafty lefty to the mound, the odds of him racking up multiple hits, runs, or RBIs diminish. Moreover, the Dodgers' pitching staff has been lights out, with their starters combining for a stellar 2.85 ERA at home. Against a backdrop of tight pitching and Kepler’s inconsistency, the under on his 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs feels like a savvy play. Add in the fact that he’s been averaging well below this mark lately, and you’ve got a recipe for a solid bet on the under as this game unfolds.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-106)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers welcome the Diamondbacks to Dodger Stadium, we’re likely in for a tightly contested game with runs at a premium. Both teams have taken turns showing offensive prowess, but recent trends indicate a dip in scoring that aligns perfectly with the under bet. Los Angeles has leaned heavily on their pitching staff, which has been absolutely lights out, particularly at home. Their starters have been limiting hard contact, and with the bullpen’s stellar ERA, we could see Arizona struggle to string together hits. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have faced left-handed pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, who excels in silencing opposing bats. Arizona’s lineup has averaged just over four runs per game lately, and with Kershaw on the mound, that number could drop even further. Taking the under at 10.5 feels like the right move, especially with both teams trending toward lower-scoring affairs. Expect a game dominated by pitching and defensive finesse.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-110)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers and Diamondbacks square off on July 12, 2026, we're likely in for a tightly contested affair under the California sun. Both teams have been trending towards the Under lately, with the Dodgers' pitching staff quietly holding opponents to an average of just 3.8 runs per game over their last ten outings. That’s a testament to the effectiveness of their starters, who have consistently kept opposing bats at bay. On the flip side, the Diamondbacks have struggled to find their rhythm at the plate, averaging a mere 4.1 runs per game this season. With the Dodgers’ ace on the mound, who boasts an impressive strikeout rate and a knack for getting out of jams, runs may be hard to come by in this matchup. Given the line set at 10.5, it seems prudent to bank on a game that stays closer to the model prediction of 9.28, making the Under a compelling play.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+146)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers welcome the Diamondbacks, this matchup feels ripe for a significant Los Angeles victory. The Dodgers have been an offensive juggernaut lately, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings. With their lineup’s depth, it’s no surprise to see stars like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman driving in crucial runs. On the mound, the Dodgers are starting a pitcher who’s been nearly untouchable at home, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have struggled to find consistency, particularly against left-handed pitchers. Their recent road woes have them limping into this game, having dropped six of their last eight on the road. With the Dodgers not only looking to win but to dominate, the -2.5 run line feels like a smart play. Expect Los Angeles to bring the heat and potentially run away with this one.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Los Angeles Dodgers ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -4 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -3 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at Dodger Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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