On Sunday 11 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -161 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the atmosphere at Anfield will be electric. Despite a somewhat shaky home record recently, the Reds have a knack for rising to the occasion against their biggest rivals. With a recent average of 1.4 goals at home, their ability to score is evident, particularly against a City side that, while undefeated in their last five, may not be as invincible at Anfield. City’s away form is strong, averaging 2 goals per match, but they’ve faced teams that don’t quite match Liverpool's attacking prowess. The key here is Liverpool's defensive solidity; they’ve allowed just 0.8 goals per game lately, which could stifle City’s attack. With Liverpool’s history in high-stakes encounters, taking them at -0.5 provides a compelling chance to capitalize on their home advantage. Expect a fierce contest, but the Reds could just edge it.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-164)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the stage is set for a thrilling encounter, likely brimming with goals. Both teams are in fine form, with City averaging an impressive 2.6 goals per game in their last five outings, while Liverpool, despite a rocky start, still manages to find the net at home with an average of 1.4 goals. Recent matchups between these two giants have also seen plenty of action, with their last five meetings yielding a combined total of 14 goals. Liverpool's attacking stats reflect a desire to push forward, creating an average of over 13 shots per game, while City’s potent offense, coupled with a solid xG average, suggests they’ll be relentless in their pursuit of goals. With both teams desperate for points and their attacking prowess on full display, betting on over 2.5 total goals feels like a savvy move.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article