On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Indiana Fever play Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Indiana Fever +1.5 on the Line, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Indiana Fever +1.5 on the Line (-125)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Indiana Fever have been playing well lately, winning 4 of their last 6 games and scoring a strong 96 points on average. They'll face the Las Vegas Aces, who are also on a hot streak, winning their last 6 games and putting up 91 points per game. This matchup looks very close, almost like a coin flip. The Fever have home advantage, and our numbers suggest they could cover the +1.5 points spread. However, the Aces are a tough opponent, and that makes this a risky pick. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 192.5 Total Points (-270)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for under 192.5 points look solid here. The Indiana Fever have been scoring well lately, averaging 96 points in their last few games, but the Las Vegas Aces are no slouches either, putting up 91 points. However, our numbers expect a total around 167.5, which is quite a bit lower than the line. Plus, both teams have strong defenses, making it harder to rack up points. The Aces have won their last six games, but that means they might be focused on maintaining their defense more than scoring. So, while it's a decent matchup, there's a real chance it could be closer to our prediction than the total. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Aliyah Boston has been a key player for the Indiana Fever, but she has struggled to find her rhythm against strong teams like the Las Vegas Aces. With the Aces winning six games in a row and holding opponents to low scores, this matchup could be tough for her. Boston averages just over 1 three-pointer at home, but her scoring might take a hit against this defense. While she's been solid on rebounds and assists, the Aces' strong performance makes it likely she'll stay under 15.5 points. The risk here is that Boston could have a breakout game, but with the Aces playing so well, it seems more likely she won't hit that mark tonight. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
A'ja Wilson Under 42.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-109)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
A'ja Wilson is a fantastic player, but we think she'll score less than 42.5 when combining her points, rebounds, and assists. She has been great in night games, averaging 29.5 when you add those stats up, but the Fever have been playing solid defense lately. They've won 4 of their last 6 games, and that could make it tougher for Wilson to hit those big numbers. The Las Vegas Aces have also been on a roll, winning 6 games in a row, but Wilson's daylight stats show she averages a bit less in those games. It's a close matchup, and the Fever's recent form means they could really challenge her. Just keep in mind that any game can surprise you! It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 Points (-109)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chelsea Gray has been on fire lately, but her performance can dip when playing at night. In her last ten night games, she averages just over ten points. With Indiana Fever scoring quite a bit more lately, this could be a game where she focuses more on assisting than scoring, especially against the strong Las Vegas Aces defense, who have won six straight. Taking the under on Chelsea Gray's points at 12.5 seems like a smart move. While she can definitely light it up, there's a real chance that the Fever's pace and the Aces' defense keep her from hitting that number. It's worth noting her scoring can fluctuate, and the pressure of this matchup might tighten things up for her. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Indiana Fever v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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