Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks (Jessica Shepard Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

The Dallas Wings are scoring really well lately, putting up around 89 points a game. They've won 5 of their last 10 games and have been on a nice run with 4 wins in their last 6. However, the Phoenix Mercury have been struggling, winning only 3 of their last 10 and often losing by a bit over 4 points in their recent games. This matchup could be tighter than it looks since both teams have had their ups and downs. Taking the Phoenix Mercury with a 10.5 point spread seems like a smart move. Even though they haven't been winning much lately, they can keep it close against a Dallas team that isn't unbeatable. The biggest risk here is how well Dallas has been playing at home. Still, the Mercury might surprise us and stay within that spread. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 Rebounds (+108)

The odds are offering a nice boost at +105 for Jessica Shepard to grab under 10.5 rebounds. Our numbers really like this pick because Shepard has been performing well lately, but not quite at a level that suggests she'll hit that over. In fact, the Dallas Wings have been stronger in their recent games, winning five of their last ten, while the Phoenix Mercury are struggling, winning only three. There's a solid chance Shepard could be limited in her rebounding opportunities, especially since the Wings allow opponents to shoot a fair number of three-pointers. This could lead to fewer boards for her, especially if the game is fast-paced. The biggest risk is how closely matched these two teams can be at times, so it's worth keeping an eye on how the game unfolds. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kahleah Copper Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-112)

Kahleah Copper is on fire for the Dallas Wings, scoring a lot and grabbing rebounds lately. The Wings are doing well, winning four of their last six games and scoring an impressive average of 89 points a game this season. Copper has been a key part of that success, contributing significantly to both scoring and rebounding. On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only three of their last ten games and allowing opponents to shoot plenty of threes. This could give Copper more chances to rack up points and rebounds. The matchup is tight, and while Copper could shine, remember the Mercury's defense is still tough. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Under 23.5 Points and Assists (-106)

Alyssa Thomas has been a solid player, but lately, her scoring and playmaking have dipped. The Dallas Wings have been doing well, winning four of their last six games and scoring an impressive 89 points on average. In contrast, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only three of their last ten and losing by nearly five points each game in recent outings. With the Mercury allowing a lot of three-pointers and not defending well, this could affect Thomas's points and assists total. While our numbers say there's a good chance this bet will hit, the risk is that Thomas could step up in a crucial moment. Keeping that in mind, betting on her to get under 23.5 points and assists seems like a smart call. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Dallas Wings v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.