On Friday 9 October 2026, AS Roma play Genoa in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Genoa +2.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -278 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

AS Roma vs Genoa: Genoa +2.5 Goal Handicap (-278)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As AS Roma prepares to welcome Genoa, the narrative shifts towards Genoa's resilience, especially with their recent struggles on the road. Their away form tells a cautionary tale: just one draw in their last five matches and a dismal goal average of barely 0.6 per game. Yet, they’re facing a Roma side that, while imposing at home, has shown vulnerabilities against teams willing to sit back and soak up pressure. What stands out is Genoa's ability to tighten up defensively, as they've conceded only 0.8 goals per game away in that stretch. With Roma's XG stats hinting they may struggle to convert chances, the handicap of 2.5 appears favorable for Genoa. If they can maintain their defensive discipline while stealing a goal, they could very well cover that line, making them an intriguing option in this matchup.

AS Roma vs Genoa: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As AS Roma prepares to face Genoa, the narrative heavily leans toward a low-scoring affair. Genoa has struggled mightily on the road, managing just a paltry 0.6 goals per match over their last five games and failing to find the net in three of those outings. Their xG numbers reflect their woes; they’ve created virtually nothing, showing a stark inability to convert chances. Meanwhile, Roma’s defense has been resolute, allowing only 2 goals in their last five matches, which means they’re adept at stifling opponents. Genoa's lack of attacking threat combined with Roma's solid backline signals that goals will be a rare commodity. Betting on the under here feels like a wise move, considering the trends and tactical realities at play.

That is how our model reads AS Roma v Genoa. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article