On Thursday 8 October 2026, AS Monaco play Toulouse in Ligue 1. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Toulouse +1 Goal Handicap, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As AS Monaco prepares to face Toulouse, all eyes will be on the visitors, who are searching for a breakthrough after a mixed spell on the road. Toulouse's recent away form shows resilience, with a record of 1-3-1 in their last five, and they’ve been averaging 1.6 goals per game in similar matchups. Despite a dip in overall scoring, their expected goals (xG) metrics suggest they're creating chances, racking up about 8.4 shots per game. Toulouse's defense will need to tighten up against Monaco, who are known for their attacking prowess, but given Monaco's own inconsistency—allowing an average of 1.8 goals in their last five—Toulouse could exploit gaps. With a solid history against Monaco, their chance to cover the handicap looks promising. This matchup is set for a competitive edge, and I believe Toulouse can clinch a positive result here.
AS Monaco vs Toulouse: Toulouse Draw No Bet (+310)
Odds correct at time of publishing
When AS Monaco hosts Toulouse, the odds could be more in Toulouse's favor than it might seem at first glance. Despite a mixed away record recently, Toulouse has shown resilience, especially against teams like Monaco, with a 1-2-2 record in their last five matchups. Their xG numbers tell a compelling story as well — they’ve been creating chances despite some tough results, averaging 1.6 goals in away games. Monaco's defense has struggled, conceding 1.8 goals on average during the same stretch, making Toulouse’s attacking potential even more promising. With a solid foundation of attacking stats, including 14.8 shots and 3 on target per game in recent outings, Toulouse can exploit any weaknesses in the Monaco backline. Given these trends and the growing confidence in their ability to secure at least a draw, backing Toulouse in the Draw No Bet market seems like a wise move.
That is how our model reads AS Monaco v Toulouse. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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