On Sunday 27 September 2026, Valencia play Athletic Bilbao in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia Moneyline, priced at +245 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia Moneyline (+245)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Valencia faces Athletic Bilbao in a clash that could see the home side finally turn their fortunes around. Despite a rocky streak at home, their record against Bilbao in recent encounters (3 wins in the last 5) provides a glimmer of hope. While Valencia has struggled to find the net lately, averaging just 0.8 goals across their last five games, they’ve been creating chances, racking up over 10 shots per game. Athletic, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, managing only 1.6 goals away and conceding 2. This match offers Valencia a chance to exploit Bilbao's away vulnerabilities and reclaim some confidence. The odds at 3.45 make backing Valencia a compelling proposition as they aim to capitalize on their historical edge and home advantage. This could be the perfect moment for them to flip the script on their current form.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia +0 Goal Handicap (+135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, the narrative suggests a potential turning point for the home side. Despite a rocky patch at home with just one win in their last five, they’ve historically fared well against Bilbao, boasting a 3-0-2 record in their last five encounters. Athletic, while solid, has been inconsistent on the road, averaging 1.6 goals but conceding 2, hinting at vulnerabilities in their defense. Valencia's recent xG numbers might be underwhelming, but they’ve been generating chances—averaging over 14 shots at home—suggesting that goals could be just around the corner. If they can tighten up defensively and capitalize on their scoring opportunities, backing them at 0 on the handicap seems like an enticing play. With the stakes high and home advantage in their favor, expect a determined Valencia to make a statement.

That is how our model reads Valencia v Athletic Bilbao. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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