On Saturday 12 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Valencia rolls into this clash with Alavés, the numbers suggest a stark contrast in form. While Valencia's recent travels have been rocky, barely scraping a point in their last five away matches, their overall performance hints at a turnaround. They’ve managed to score 1.4 away goals per game despite a lack of creativity, evident in their xG of 0, which is a concern, but they’ve shown resilience defensively, conceding just 1.6 per game. Alavés, on the other hand, has been struggling to find the back of the net, averaging a mere 0.2 goals in their last outings. With Valencia’s attacking potential even in a slump, they should comfortably surpass the 3.5 handicap against a side that's faltered significantly at home. It’s a calculated bet, aligning with the odds that heavily favor Valencia to dominate this matchup.
Alavés vs Valencia: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the stage is set for a clash that screams low-scoring drama. Valencia's recent form is troubling; they’ve managed just a paltry 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings, creating little more than a handful of chances with an xG of zero. Their lack of attacking bite is alarming, highlighted by only 2.2 shots on target per match. On the flip side, Alavés isn't exactly firing on all cylinders either, averaging just 1.4 goals in their last five, but they’ve shown defensive resilience, conceding 1.6 goals per game. With Valencia struggling to find the net and both teams likely to prioritize a solid defensive setup, the likelihood of a goal fest seems slim. Betting on Under 5.5 total goals feels not just safe, but almost inevitable in this matchup. Expect a tactical, cagey affair rather than a scoring spree.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +2.5 Goal Handicap (-1667)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Alavés hosts Valencia on September 15, the stage is set for a classic clash where form and statistics paint a telling picture. Valencia has struggled away recently, but their last five matches have seen them create 10.4 shots per game, though they’ve only hit the target 3.8 times. Meanwhile, they’ve conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Yes, Valencia's scoring has been lackluster, with a dismal xG of zero in their last match, but they’ve shown flashes of resilience, particularly in high-pressure moments. Alavés, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, often failing to capitalize on home advantage. This matchup feels ripe for Valencia to break through, especially against an Alavés side that has leaked goals. Betting on Valencia to cover a -2.5 handicap seems a savvy move, given their potential to finally find the net and exploit Alavés’ defensive lapses.
That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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