Here are our AFL picks for Monday 31 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals, priced at -156 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -156 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 9.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Hayden Young (Fremantle) Under 20.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Hayden Young (Fremantle) Under 20.5 Disposals. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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