Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 25 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Talia Gibson to win the match, priced at +197 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Maria Sakkari vs Talia Gibson: Talia Gibson to win the match (+197)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Maria Sakkari faces Talia Gibson at Singapore Open on Friday 25 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Talia Gibson wins the match. It was priced at +197 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.70 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Considering their recent performance, Gibson boasts a solid surface-specific win rate, with a first-serve percentage of 72% and winning 65% of first-serve points. She also demonstrates resilience with a 62.5% break point save rate, crucial in high-pressure moments. In contrast, Sakkari's recent form shows a lack of competitiveness, with an overall win rate of only 40% in her last five matches, indicating potential vulnerability. This combination of serve performance and recent form makes Gibson the more promising pick in this matchup.

Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska: Elise Mertens to win the match (-192)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Elise Mertens faces Maja Chwalinska at Singapore Open on Friday 25 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elise Mertens wins the match. It was priced at -192 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Elise Mertens is the value pick at 1.52 against Maja Chwalinska, backed by superior recent form and serve performance. Mertens boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating strong overall form. In contrast, Chwalinska has struggled, reflected in her opponent’s stats where Mertens’ opponents have a 71% first serve percentage, illustrating the pressure Mertens can apply. Chwalinska’s serve stats are weak; her last five opponents have only managed to win 44% of their serve points, and her second serve points won rate is just 22%. Mertens, with her ability to capitalize on break points, coupled with Chwalinska’s 50% break point save percentage, suggests that Mertens will exploit any opportunities effectively. Overall, Mertens' recent dominance and superior serving metrics position her as the clear value side in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.