Today's Tennis Best Bets - Smart Betting Angles

Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 24 September 2026. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Elise Mertens to win the match, priced at -182 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska: Elise Mertens to win the match (-182)

Elise Mertens faces Maja Chwalinska at Singapore Open on Friday 25 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elise Mertens wins the match. It was priced at -182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Elise Mertens is the value pick at 1.55 against Maja Chwalinska, boasting a stronger recent win rate of 80% over her last five matches compared to Chwalinska's lower performance. While both players have similar serve statistics, Mertens' overall form indicates a superior ability to win pressure points, especially given her opponent's struggle in key metrics: Chwalinska has only managed a 50% break point save rate and a 22% win rate on second serve points over her last five matches. Mertens' consistent form and ability to capitalize on opponents' weaknesses suggest a higher likelihood of securing the win. Thus, the combination of Mertens’ solid win rate and Chwalinska’s serving vulnerabilities make this a strong pick.

Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala: Alexandra Eala to win the match (-400)

Tatiana Prozorova faces Alexandra Eala at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexandra Eala wins the match. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Alexandra Eala is the value pick at 1.25 against Tatiana Prozorova due to her superior recent form and performance indicators. Eala boasts a win rate of 80% over her last 10 matches, significantly outperforming Prozorova's 50% win rate. Although specific serve stats are absent, Eala's higher overall win rate suggests she has been effective on serve and return, crucial against opponents under pressure. The lack of detailed serve statistics for both players is mitigated by Eala’s overall form and experience, providing a better likelihood of her winning key points. Overall, Eala’s recent form and ability to win under pressure make her the stronger contender.

Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez: Leylah Fernandez to win the match (+410)

Mirra Andreeva faces Leylah Fernandez at Singapore Open on Friday 25 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Leylah Fernandez wins the match. It was priced at +410 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $51 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Despite both players showing unremarkable recent form, Fernandez's overall win rate of 60% over the last five matches indicates better consistency compared to Andreeva's performance. Andreeva's opponents have posted a first-serve percentage of 60.2% and won nearly 59% of first points, highlighting her vulnerability against consistent servers. Fernandez’s ability to capitalize on break points is bolstered by her adversaries’ average break point save rate of 41.1%, suggesting she can convert opportunities effectively.

Talia Gibson vs Viktória Morvayová: Viktória Morvayová to win the match (+782)

Talia Gibson faces Viktória Morvayová at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Viktória Morvayová wins the match. It was priced at +782 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $88.20 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Given the data presented, both players come in with no recent form or performance metrics available, making this a challenging analysis. 13.3%). This discrepancy may be influenced by factors such as previous matchup history or surface preferences not reflected in the stats. In a head-to-head scenario with no recent form, backing Morvayová at this price represents a calculated risk with potential for reward, particularly if she can exploit any weaknesses in Gibson’s game.

Maria Sakkari vs Nao Hibino: Maria Sakkari to win the match (-500)

Maria Sakkari faces Nao Hibino at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Maria Sakkari wins the match. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. For the match between Maria Sakkari and Nao Hibino, Sakkari presents a solid betting value at 1.2. Despite the lack of surface-specific stats, her overall form (40% win rate over the last five matches) suggests she is in better shape compared to Hibino. While both players have not demonstrated strong serve metrics recently, Hibino's opponents have won 66.67% of their serve points and converted break points at 66.67%, indicating she struggles under pressure. Furthermore, Hibino's high opponent win rates (77.78% on first serves) emphasize her vulnerability against strong servers like Sakkari. These factors suggest Sakkari is likely to capitalize on Hibino's weaknesses, making her the value side in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.