Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 18 September 2026. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Liudmila Samsonova to win the match, priced at +360 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Marta Kostyuk vs Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova to win the match (+360)

Odds available at Matchbook at time of publishing

Marta Kostyuk faces Liudmila Samsonova at Guadalajara Open on Thursday 17 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Liudmila Samsonova wins the match. It was priced at +360 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $46 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. For the matchup between Marta Kostyuk and Liudmila Samsonova, the value lies with Samsonova at odds of 4.6. Kostyuk's recent form shows a win rate of 40% over the last five matches, while Samsonova's is notably higher at 60% over the last ten. Additionally, Kostyuk's opponents have performed well against her serve, with opponents averaging a first serve percentage of 57.6% and winning 74.9% of first points. In contrast, Samsonova has the potential to exploit this weakness, especially given Kostyuk’s struggles in pressure situations (BP save rate at just 47.4%). Overall, Samsonova's stronger recent form and ability to capitalize on Kostyuk's serve vulnerabilities make her a compelling value pick.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.